Pick Packers to Cover On the Road vs. Dolphins for NFL Betting

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 8, 2014 12:05 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2014 12:05 PM GMT

Packers and Dolphins collide in week 6 NFL betting, all while each looks to extend winning form. Packers nudge ahead of the Dolphins in both SU betting and against the spread. Will the Packers come through on their favourable NFL odds or the Dolphins defy the NFL odds? Check out our NFL picks for this game.

Green Bay Packers (3-2 SU, 1-2 away)
Green Bay Packers have kicked up a notch after a 19-7 defeat to the Lions on the road that had many NFL pundits and experts alike burying Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ hopes on the season. Since that concerning, not to mention disappointing defeat, Aaron Rodgers and his Packers reeled off two straight victories all while outscoring the opposition 80-27. The Packers are now amongst the top ten scorers in the league averaging 26.8 points per game. The best bit:  their point-production, which is nearly as high as league-leading Indianapolis Colts (31.2 points per game) is more efficient, coming from an offense that ranks 18th in passing offense (219.6) and 25th in rushing offense (89.6).

Most recently, the Packers are behind an impressive 42-10 win over the Vikings on Thursday as the 9.5-point chalk – they were the biggest favourites to cover on the week 5 NFL odds page. Running back Eddie Lacy had a standout game, running for a season-high 105 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers was up to his lofty standards, going 12-of-17 passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns.

 

Miami Dolphins (2-2 SU, 1-1 home)
Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week with a 2-2 SU start on the season, a record they improved at the expense of the hapless Oakland Raiders in London a fortnight ago. Indeed, the 38-14 victory at Wembley Stadium resulted in wholesale changes to the Raiders organization, beginning with firing their coach. But how much stock can NFL bettors put into a pounding victory over a feeble opponent?

Fact of the matter is the Dolphins have been blowing hot and cold randomly. They began the season with a convincing, come-from-behind win over the Patriots only to fall to the Bills and Chiefs in the subsequent weeks. Although they bounced back over the Raiders, sustaining momentum through a bye week comes with certain challenges, not least against former Super Bowl champions Packers. They also have to contend with several key injuries and absences such as RB Knowshon Moreno (dislocated elbow) and Derrick Shelby’s suspension following a highly publicised arrest at the weekend.

 

Packers -3.0 (-125) vs. Dolphins +3.0 (+105)
Packers are riding a two game winning streak and take a 2-2-1 ATS while the Dolphins are after a win and take a 2-2 ATS record.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
Dolphins are 5th in rushing (142.3 yards per game) and 9th defending against the pass (215.0 yards per game) and 13th against the rush (107.3 yards per game). That defensive side of the ball lends their NFL odds value as the home pups at +160. The idea is that if they can contain the Packers offense, the Dolphins have a reasonable expectation of turning the odds in their favour. Problem with that expectation is that it’s wildly optimistic, heavily reliant on Ryan Tannehill to come up trumps. Confidence has been on the decline where he’s concerned with 60% completion and six touchdowns to three interceptions. There was even the briefest hint of benching him a few weeks ago/

Packers have been averaging 40 points in the last two rounds of NFL betting, all while being extremely efficient in driving the ball down the field.  That efficiency augurs well for them against a modest Dolphins defense. Add to that a decisive ground attack –  if  RB Eddie Lacy enjoys another standout 100-plus yard game, the Dolphins will have their hands full – the Packers should win comfortably, even by double-digit comfort. Take the Packers on your NFL picks as the 3-point road faves.

NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers -3.0 (-125)

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