Pick Over When Betting 49ers Season Win Totals Odds

San Francisco 49ers

Nikki Adams

Thursday, July 14, 2016 2:48 PM GMT

Thursday, Jul. 14, 2016 2:48 PM GMT

The Niners receive THE toughest NFL schedule in 2016, prompting negative market outlooks across the board. Do the bookies have it right? We preview each and every game and serve NFL picks.

San Francisco 49ers 2015 Look Back
The San Francisco 49ers, who are coming off a subpar 5-11 SU season, receive no favours from the NFL schedulers. Indeed, it’s largely responsible for keeping expectations low across sports betting platforms. Bodog rolls out a 5.5 projected season win total (barely moving off their record in 2015, obviously) with both the OVER and UNDER trading at -115 NFL odds. Bet365, by comparison, while rolling out the same 5.5 projected season win total serve up the UNDER at -120 NFL odds and the OVER at -110 NFL odds. Clearly, neither sportsbook is willing to lean towards a positive season, which is telling in itself.

To say Chip Kelly and the Niners have their work cut out for them is no understatement. The Philadelphia cast off has engineered quick turnarounds before though – he took the Philadelphia Eagles after all from a 4-12 season in 2012 to back-to-back 10-6 SU seasons in 2013 and 2014, the former of which was an NFC East winning season as well – so writing Kelly and the Niners off may be premature. It would be unfair to say otherwise when the NFL changes from season-to-season, those that go up come down and vice versa. No two seasons are mirror reflections of each other and each and every term serves up a surprise package. 

Whether the Niners will be that surprise package remains to be seen. At face value, though, it’s easy to understand why all and sundry are burying the Niners even before the season gets underway. Admittedly, the main worry is the fluid quarterback situation – a carousel between Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick and, potentially, rookie sixth NFL draft pick Jeff Driskel, all of which is exacerbated by the reports that Kaepernick requested a trade in February. Not knowing which quarterback is the best fit for the new coach and system makes negotiating the toughest NFL schedule in the field a challenge. Consider it also gets off to a most daunting start with a Monday Night Football clash against divisional rivals Los Angeles Rams, followed by a date with back-to-back NFC heavyweights Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks…you get the drift.

So amidst all these uncertainties we boldly make our predictions for the San Francisco 49ers and their 2016 season with a view towards the 5.5 projected season win total and what the best NFL pick in that market might be.  For the purpose of continuity, we’re making the assumption Colin Kaepernick wins the starting job in Chip Kelly’s team. Whether that hypothesis comes to be only time will tell.

So here goes…

 

Week 1 vs. Los Angeles, Monday, September 12
Inasmuch as the Niners are faced with a quarterback conundrum so too are the Los Angeles Rams, who have their prized No.1 NFL draft pick Jared Goff probably competing with Case Keenum for the starting job. Many NFL insiders are tipping the Rams to take a page from Lovie Smith and the Bucs, who started the 2015 No.1 NFL draft pick Jameis Winston in week 1 of the NFL betting season. Let’s assume that is the case here with Jared Goff leading Ted Gurley and the Rams into Monday Night Football. That’s daunting for a rookie. On the flipside, we’re assuming Kapernick is the Niners’ signal caller because Blaine Gabbert is a poor alternative as far as we can tell from his four years in the NFL as a backup mainly. Last season, the Niners opened with a convincing 20-3 win over the Vikings. Niners have the best record in the NFL in MNF betting and, as well, Kaepernick is 5-0 in MNF. It’s something to hang our hat on.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 1-0
 

Week 2 vs. Carolina (away), Sunday, September 18
A short week, a trip to the home of the NFC Champions Carolina Panthers. Absolutely nobody expects a win from Chip Kelly and the Niners at the Bank of America. Every single predictions piece floating in the internet’s ether has this one down as a LOSS. It’s week 2 of the NFL betting season though where upsets and surprises are possible. For instance, Tampa Bay defeated New Orleans in week 2 of the 2015 season on the road, a result few foresaw at the time after Jameis Winston’s rude introduction to the NFL behind a 42-14 loss to Tennessee and the No.2 NFL draft pick Marcus Mariota in week 1. If we delve into September 2015, we can find more upsets on the NFL betting board: Buffalo beating Indianapolis in week 1 on the road and St. Louis upending Seattle 34-31 in OT spring to mind. Who’s to say the Niners can’t potentially mastermind the upset here? Chip Kelly spent three seasons with the Eagles and in 2014 he led the Eagles to a 45-21 beat down of the Panthers in Philly… Oh, ok, who are we kidding? Grasping at straws to justify an upset NFL pick is wasted time. Look, we’re just putting it down as an upset, one of those anomalies that just don’t make sense and happen from time to time.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 2-0

 

Week 3 vs. Seattle (away), Sunday, September 25
Arch rivals Seattle Seahawks in week 3 of the NFL betting season is a rivalry Niners nation gets up for without a doubt. It has not gone their way in recent memory. Once again, all and sundry are predicting another LOSS for the Niners here. But the Seahawks will be without Marshawn Lynch, a thorn in Niners’ side over the last few years. Might everyone be taking it for granted that past NFL betting trends are just going to continue? Probably, they are. Tempted as we are to predict the upset for a second straight week, it’s best to be prudent with our NFL picks. It’s back-to-back road games against NFC heavyweights and a lot of travel across the country. The NFL odds are stacked against the Niners for good reason.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 2-1

 

Week 4 vs. Dallas, Sunday, October 2
Chip Kelly’s time in the NFC East will prove fruitful in this clash with the Dallas Cowboys, who are coming off a poor season largely down to Tony Romo’s injury-ridden run. Everything hinges on Romo and his health as far as the Cowboys are concerned. San Francisco will be hosting the Cowboys at Levi Stadium and there’ll be a lot of pressure on Chip Kelly and his Niners to show up for their beloved fans.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 3-1



Week 5 vs. Arizona, Thursday, October 6
Another short week. A divisional champion in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals swept the Niners last season, winning 47-7 in Arizona in week 3 of the NFL betting season and 19-13 in San Francisco in week 12 of the NFL betting season. A lot is being made about how poorly Kaepernick played last term, but some of the responsibility lies with the coaching decisions and tactics as well as his injuries. There was a time when a lot of love was to be had for Kaepernick. One certainly hopes he can redeem himself in 2016 and one way towards that would be to erase the memory of that 47-7 defeat in week 3 of last season. It was one of his worst days in the office to be sure. He might not get the W, but it should be a closer game than most would have it.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 3-2

 

Week 6 vs. Buffalo (away), Sunday, October 16
A long week to prepare for the Buffalo Bills on the away is a nice boon considering the tough schedule to start the season on. The Bills won’t be pushovers and their defense is nothing to sniff at. Many NFL bettors have high expectations of the Bills after their solid 2015 account under Rex Ryan in his first year as head coach. But that’s just it. Rex Ryan is as unpredictable as they come and his teams have been largely inconsistent. Don’t think it’s such a stretch to bet on the upset on the raod here too, do you?

NFL Picks: Win
Record 4-2

 

Week 7 vs. Tampa Bay, Sunday, October 23
Although Jameis Winston is into his second year with the Bucs, he’s already dealing with change. A new coach and a new scheme isn’t ideal, puts a damper on continuity and the idea of building on his rookie year. Home advantage for the Niners should rule as they go into their Bye week.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 5-2

 

Week 8 BYE

 

Week 9 vs. New Orleans, Sunday, November 6
New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees can light up like nobody’s business. Heck, in a subpar 7-9 SU season last year they managed to put up some stellar accounts, namely a 52-49 shootout win over the Giants with Brees throwing 7DS to Eli Manning throwing 6TDs. Fact is though that Brees isn’t the same on the road as at home and that could play into Niners’ advantage. That and the bye week to prepare for the Saints.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 6-2

 

Week 10 vs. Arizona (away), Sunday, November 13
Arizona swept the series with the Niners last season and while one win was lopsided the other was closer. Bruce Arian’s side has been a thorn in their side, they are well coached and tough to beat on both sides of the ball. Arizona could get the series sweep again here.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 6-3

 

Week 11 vs. New England, Sunday, November 20
While the jury is still out on Tom Brady and his four-game suspension to start the season, by week 11 most expect he’ll be back in the swing of things and raring to go. If the suspension is upheld, he’ll have a huge chip on his shoulder. Betting against the Patriots is just a risky bet.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 6-4

 

Week 12 vs. Miami (away), Sunday, November 27
The Niners hit the road to take on the Miami Dolphins who are in flux after a disappointing season in 2015. It seems every year the Dolphins are talked up only to fall to the wayside. The Niners can win on the road, even if it’s a long trip and all that shebang.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 7-4

 

Week 13 vs. Chicago (away), Sunday, December 4
The Niners defeated the Chicago Bears last season with a little bit of luck. They might not need it again though. Chicago Bears have been horrendous at home over the last few seasons, including a 1-7 SU mark in 2015. Have the Bears improved that much in the offseason?

NFL Picks: Win
Record 8-4

 

Week 14 vs. NY Jets, Sunday, December 11
The New York Jets boast plenty enviable offensive baubles that could give Chip Kelly and the Niners’ defense headaches. However, the Ryan Fitzpatrick contract standoff with the Jets is one of the main talking points of the offseason, with no end in sight yet either. After being the Cinderella story of the 2015 season when he won the starting job off delinquent Geno Smith and nearly carried the Jets to the playoffs, Fitzpatrick’s fairy tale hits a wrinkle. Barring a quarterback that is reliable the Jets could be in a whole slew of trouble in 2016.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 9-4

 

Week 15 vs. Atlanta (away), Sunday, December 18
Dann Quinn knows the Niners intimately after years of putting up defensive schemes for the Seattle Seahawks. That know-how edge and home advantage should play to the Falcons’ advantage on the field.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 9-5

 

Week 16 vs. Los Angeles (away), Saturday, December 24
The Los Angeles Rams welcome the San Francisco 49ers to their new stadium in Los Angeles. It’s unfamiliar territory for the visitors. Although it’s tough to make out the Rams in 2016 with all the changes, they can be counted on to put up a good show before their fans.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 9-6

 

Week 17 vsSeattle, Sunday, January 1
Last season, the Seahawks swept the Niners en route to a second place finish in the NFC West division behind the Cardinals (another divisional rival that enjoyed the sweep). It’s the final game of the season in which there’s sure to be something on the line. Most expect the Seahawks to be the ones to have a vested interest in the result and not the Niners. Be that as it may, whether or not the Niners have a stake in the NFC West division and postseason, they can still play spoilsport to the Seahawks. They have home advantage and no Marshawn Lynch to consider.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 10-6

 

NFL Projected Season Win Totals: Bet you’re wondering what Kool Aid we’re sipping to put up such a rose-tinted debut to Chip Kelly’s Niners. The thing is these anomalies do happen and sometimes where least expected in the NFL. Consider Kelly’s first few seasons with the Eagles and, not least of all, the fact that Kaepernick and the Niners did have a successful stint from 2012 to 2014 before it all went downhill last term. Combining those two aspects could produce a turnaround for the ages in 2016. It’s a long shot, granted. A gamble that could go tits up, undoubtedly. But, you know the saying, fortune favours the brave….

In any event, whether or not the Niners finish with a double-digit season as laid out in our bold and crazy game-by-game predictions piece isn’t really the point. The point is that the Niners must be better than the NFL odds makers would have them. As it is, they’re being tipped as an under .500 team and we’re not of the same opinion. So we’re betting the Niners to go OVER the 5.5 projected season win total at -110 with Bet365 and let’s just see where they actually fall when all is said and done.

 

NFL Picks: OVER 5.5 at -110 at Bet365

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