Pick 'Over' in Eagles vs. Patriots NFL Preseason Betting

Jason Lake

Monday, August 11, 2014 3:08 PM GMT

The Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots both lost their Week 1 preseason games SU and ATS. But the Eagles still cashed in for us against the NFL odds. Can they do it again Friday night at Gillette Stadium?

We’re all football betting veterans now. One week of NFL preseason action and the Hall of Fame Game are already in the bank, and like most weeks, our NFL picks finished up around .500. We didn’t get paid by the New England Patriots (+2.5 away on the closing football lines), who lost 23-6 to Washington despite Bill Belichick’s 10-3-2 ATS lifetime record in Week 1. Whoops, make that 10-4-2 ATS now. But Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles did the expected and let the offense fly in their 34-28 loss to the Chicago Bears (OVER 41.5).

So what shall we do about Friday night’s tilt (7:30 p.m. ET, NFLN) in Foxborough between the Eagles and Pats? Well, we don’t have any lines yet up on the NFL odds board as we go to press, so I’m working without a net here, but past history suggests we’re going to see another high-scoring affair in this one.

 

The Sanchize
Our pick on the OVER last week was a pretty easy one, so let's look at the reasoning behind it. Long story short, Kelly had a 3-1 OVER record during the preseason last year, as his blur offense instantly started wreaking havoc on the pros the same way it did back in Eugene. The Eagles were also facing an offensive guru in his own right: Bears head coach Marc Trestman.

Things unfolded as one might expect. Mark Sanchez looked like a viable quarterback again, at least against second-string defenders, while all three of Chicago’s quarterbacks threw TD passes. Just about the only guy who didn’t perform well was Philadelphia Eagles' starter Nick Foles, who threw two picks. Foles spent part of Sunday’s practice working on the mistakes he made last week and figures to do better with whatever snaps he gets on Friday.

 

No, Not Janeane Garofalo
New England’s starting QB also had a disappointing 2014 debut. No, not Tom Brady – he was given the day off, which was a bit of a surprise, at least to Yours Truly. Perhaps Ryan Mallett would have had a little more success playing against Washington’s B-team; instead, he went 5-of-12 for 55 yards and ate a sack. No. 3 QB Jimmy Garoppolo put up much better numbers, although he was wayward at times: 9-of-13 for 157 yards and a major. Did I mention you should watch out for this guy?

We don’t have any indication as we go to press whether or not Brady will see any action in Week 2. Rumor has it that Mallett is being shopped, so we’ll probably see plenty of him again on Friday, one way or the other. Same with his potential replacement in Garoppolo. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that the Pats will struggle to score like they did against Washington. Mallett and Tim Tebow (remember him?) played three quarters of last year’s 31-22 preseason victory over Kelly’s Eagles, as the final score easily blew out the total of 40 on the football betting lines.

Belichick’s strong Week 1 ATS preseason record may not have come through for us last week, but there are more NFL betting trends where that came from. How about this one: Belichick has the OVER at 49-29 in exhibition play, including last week’s loss in D.C. Tack that on to the general rise in scoring (and OVER results) in the NFL, and I don’t have too much trouble recommending the OVER in this situation, even if we don’t have any totals yet. How bad could it be, anyway? Somewhere between 41 and 44 points? I have no problem with that.
NFL Pick: Take the OVER

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