Let's see if we can exploit the weakness that the NFL odds are offering in Sunday's games and get our betting record better in a hurry!
Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (28-29-2 -27.85 units) *Not Including Saturday's Results*
As of this writing I don't know how we did yesterday but you can find the results if you peruse my Bust Your Bookie article - Saturday Divisional Finals. However what I do know is that last Saturday was a horror show but last Sunday proved to be much better as we cashed with the Colts via the point spread and money line that the NFL odds were offering. The underdog Lions cashed as well but the late flag that was - and then wasn't - not only stupefied the viewing audience but cost those betting the 'over' in that game a bundle.
But here we are in the Elite Eight of professional football and despite a nearly .500 record I am looking at a towering deficit courtesy of my big plays tanking while my smaller NFL picks are cashing.
Cowboys vs. Packers (Side & Total)
If you're smitten with the Packers while at the same time decrying the fact that the Cowboys are even in the playoffs after they got the benefit of not one but two stupefying decisions en route to their victory over the Lions then you may be destined for a hard fall in this one. We know how good the Packers offense is but despite the fact that Dallas shouldn't even be here, they too possess an explosive attack of their own. So don't be too quick to coronate the Packers and dismiss the Boys.
NFL Betting Trends
Playoff teams coming off byes are 17-25 ATS since 2003.
The underdog is 53-25 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
Cowboys are 23-12 ATS as an underdog since 2009.
The Packers defense is a far cry from the one Romo faced last week. Green Bay is 23rd against the run and that doesn't bode well when facing a one-man wrecking crew like DeMarco Murray. Though their pass defense is decent enough they do tend to get torched by top flight receivers such as, oh I don't know - Dez Bryant!
This isn't to say the Cowboys are going to strut into Lambeau and walk out with a victory. No, I believe Aaron Rodgers will assail the Cowboys 26th ranked passing defense and ring up plenty of crooked numbers. But I guess that is my point. Both teams will attack and be successful because of their potent offenses against only pedestrian defenses. These teams have a combined over/under record of 20-12-1 this season. So the deal here is to go high with a slight lean on them Cowboys.
Free NFL Pick: Over 53 for 4 units at Pinnacle
Free NFL Pick: Cowboys +7 (-130 buying one point) for 2 units at Pinnacle.com.
Colts vs. Broncos *MAX PLAY*
Fittingly the marquee matchup comes on Sunday night as the NFL has indeed saved the best for last. Now whether or not this game lives up to its potential is another matter entirely but Hollywood could not have scripted a better story. Future Hall-of-Famer and one of the very best passers in the history of the sport Peyton Manning versus the young upstart who supplanted Manning in Indianapolis, Andrew Luck. This one should be a dandy.
The issue at hand is that the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite. You can't blame them of course because the public at large will wager just about as much on Denver minus the points in their NFL picks as those who will grab the points with Indianapolis. However, we know better. We know that Peyton Manning has looked like a man with a sprained arm over the past several weeks. We know that some of his key weapons have been ailing. And we also know his offensive line has not protected him as stoutly as they had earlier in the season.
Conversely Andrew Luck and the Colts are clicking on all cylinders after a thorough dismantling of the Bengals in the opening round of the playoffs. Even their highly criticized defense appears to be rounding into shape at just the right time. The time is now for the Colts who will buck the Broncos right out of Mile High.
NFL Betting Trends
Peyton Manning is 5-12 ATS in the playoffs (against average or better quarterbacks).
Peyton Manning is 3-7 SU vs. 3-4 Defenses in the playoffs
Peyton Manning is 5-7 SU when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder.
Free NFL Picks: Colts +7 for 5 units at 5Dimes
Free NFL Picks: Colts +255 for 3 units at 5Dimes
The Woodman’s Corner (8-10 ATS, - 2.9 units)
The Woodman crashed and burned with his beloved Cardinals last week and he took a passenger right along with him - me! This week he's got Luck on his side and selects the Indianapolis Colts +7 in his NFL picks.