Pick NFL Odds Favorite in Bills vs. Lions Week 5

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 30, 2014 1:33 PM GMT

Buffalo Bills look to snap a two-game losing streak when they descend on the Detroit Lions, but if NFL betting markets were any indication, the odds are stacked heavily against them. Can the Bills turn the NFL odds in their favour or the Lions continue their impressive form? Find out as we breakdown this matchup and serve up our NFL picks.

Buffalo Bills Crash Down To Earth
Buffalo Bills sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets, racing out of the gates behind a two-game winning streak and the surprisingly poised play of E.J. Manuel. The Bills on the brink of a 3-0 start, the NFL world seemed off its axis. Who'd have thunk it when early NFL projections were painstakingly being put forward across sports betting forums and platforms. However, reality finally set in. Back-to-back defeats plunged the Bills to a 2-2 SU mark after four weeks of NFL betting and all was right with the world.

The Bills opened as the slightly overrated 1-point favourites in week 3 at the expense of a hot San Diego Chargers, flush off a victory over the defending champions Seattle Seahawks. Surprisingly, the Bills improved to 2.5-point chalk across several sportsbooks, but the Chargers proved to be the value NFL pick, covering the spread comfortably in a 22-10 victory and handing the Bills their first defeat on the season.

Last week, the Bills descended on the Houston Texans, who'd also had their bid for a 3-0 start on the season thwarted by the NY Giants. When Manuel got the Bills within 20-17 with just nine minutes left on the clock, the field goal line set for the game across sportsbooks seemed spot on. Then, Manuel’s potentially game-winning drive was thwarted by a Morris interception and the Texans capitalised on a field goal opportunity to take the 23-17 win.

Buffalo take an overall 2-2 ATS mark this season into week 5 NFL betting and 1-1 ATS record both on the road and as the away underdog.

 

Detroit Lions Defense Topping Charts
Detroit Lions are having a solid season, thanks to solid play on both sides of the ball. Mainly, defense has been tops – second in the league against the pass (186.5 yards per game allowed) and sixth against the rush (80.8 yards per game allowed). Offense is no slouch, ranking seventh in the league with 276.0 yards per game and averaging 21.3 points.

Curiously, the Lions opened as the 1.5-point favourites on the spread, but the public betting action moved against them and they closed on the opposite end of the spectrum as the 1.5-point dogs. Rumours that Calvin Johnson would potentially miss the game as well as a suspect ATS road record played a part in the betting trend moving against the Lions. But didn't they put paid on that when they upset the Jets 24-17, backing up their 19-7 win over the Green Bay Packers at home from a week earlier.

 

Bills At Lions Betting Tips and Picks
The egg Lions laid against Carolina aside in week 2 NFL betting, they are 3-1 SU and ATS this season, which includes a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home at the expense of the Giants and Packers. Love or hate the Lions, they are solid on both sides of the ball, which augurs well against E.J. Manuel and the Bills. At first glance, the 7-point spread on the NFL odds may seem overly generous for this matchup, but after winning all three games by seven points or more this season, the Lions should have a field day with a Bills offense that ranks a paltry 29th in passing (198.5 yards per game) and a modest 13th in rushing (122.3). Needless to say, the Bills are a step down from the Giants and Packers, not least the Lions are at home for this game. Take the Lions to shutdown the Bills and Stafford to show E.J. Manuel how it’s done on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Lions -7.0; Over 44.0 at BookMaker

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