Pick Jets vs. Patriots to Go 'Over' for Thursday Night Football

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 5:01 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 5:01 PM UTC

The New York Jets aren’t very good at scoring points, so people are naturally betting the UNDER on the Week 7 NFL odds for Thursday’s game against the New England Patriots. But what about those pick-sixes?

Jason’s record after Week 6: 21-22 ATS, 5-10-1 Totals

Profit: minus-13.99 units


At what point did “hate-watching” television become a thing? Credit for popularizing the term goes to Emily Nussbaum, the TV critic for The New Yorker who used it in a 2012 article about Smash. Nussbaum was talking about shows that are “bad in a truly spectacular way,” so bad that people tune in specifically to feel the rush of disbelief and righteous anger boiling inside themselves.

Smash was mercifully cancelled after two seasons. But hate-watchers have a new toy to play with: Thursday Night Football. Has any other program in the history of television delivered such vitriol and such high ratings at the same time? We’re expecting more lousy football this week when the 1-5 New York Jets visit the 4-2 New England Patriots. Lousy enough that people are more than willing to bet the UNDER, driving the total on our Week 7 NFL odds board from 46 points at the open to 44 points as we go to press.


Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?
Hate-watching is definitely not a new thing in sports – especially when it comes to teams from New York and Boston. But the Jets have really elevated their awfulness this year. They have the No. 29-ranked offense in the league (No. 29 pass, No. 21 rush) in terms of efficiency, led by QB Geno Smith (69.7 passer rating), who recently missed a team meeting on the West Coast and blamed it on getting the time zones wrong.

It’s not just Smith, though. The Jets offensive line ranks No. 22 in pass protection; LG Brian Winters has been substandard since joining the league last year, and now he’s on injured reserve with a torn ACL, leaving little-used sophomore Oday Aboushi to start Thursday night (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The O-line also ranks No. 20 in overall run blocking, although it’s very good at the first level, checking in at No. 4 in power running with Chris Ivory pounding the rock for 4.9 yards per carry.

Power running alone isn’t going to put a lot of points on the board. The Jets are No. 30 in the league in scoring at 16.0 points per game; they’ve scored 10 touchdowns (all on offense) and kicked nine field goals. At least Nick Folk hasn’t missed a kick all season. Only the Oakland Raiders (15.8 points per game) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (13.5 points) have done worse this year.


Donations Welcome
So why is the UNDER just 3-3 for New York after six games? Partly because the Jets offense is good at giving points to the other team – Smith has thrown a pair of pick-sixes, one in Week 3 to the Chicago Bears in a 27-19 loss (OVER 44.5), and the other at the end of last week’s 31-17 defeat at the hands of the Denver Broncos (OVER 47).

Then you have the 24.0 points the Jets defense is allowing every game. Opponents have caught an NFL-high 15 touchdown passes thus far, with two rushing TDs to boot. Granted, there haven’t been any return TDs yet; New York has the No. 6-ranked special teams in the league, and the best punting, courtesy of Ryan Quigley and his 44.6 net yards average. But it’s been a parade to the Jets end zone otherwise.

Lastly, you have the low totals that New York brings to the table. This week’s total has already dipped noticeably, enough to make it very much worth a look against a Patriots team that has the OVER at 4-2 thus far, including each of the last three games. Hate-watching Tom Brady? Priceless.

Free NFL Pick: Bet one unit on OVER 44 (–105) at 5Dimes

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