Pick Jags +14 vs. Chargers as NFL Odds Undervalue Bortles

Steven Suarez

Thursday, September 25, 2014 2:05 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 25, 2014 2:05 PM UTC

If you've been backing the Chargers, you've been making a lot of profits. They'll face a seemingly easy matchup Week 4 at home against the Jaguars, who have yet to win a game this season. Just how much are the NFL odds in San Diego's favor?

A range of 12.5 to 14 can be found on the NFL betting lines with San Diego obviously on the favorites side. The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their first three matchups coming into Week 4.

The O/U as of now can be locked in at 45 at 5Dimes. The 'over' is 3-0 in Jacksonville's games thus far, with the 'under' at 2-1 for those matchups involving San Diego.

San Diego Chargers in 2014-15 Regular Season: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, +6.7 margin of victory

Injury Watch: Ryan Mathews (out), Keenan Allen (probable), Antonio Gates (probable), Manti Te'o (out), Brandon Flowers (probable), Marcus Gilchrist (probable), Corey Liguet (probable), Jason Verrett (questionable)

Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014-15 Regular Season: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, -25.0 margin of victory

Injury Watch: Toby Gerhart (probable), Marqise Lee (questionable), Allen Hurns (questionable), Clay Harbor (probable), Paul Posluszny (questionable), Roy Miller (probable), Alan Ball (probable)

The Chargers surprised a few people by traveling across the country and easily getting past Buffalo in a 22-10 road victory.

San Diego held the Bills under 300 yards of offense, and did enough when they had the ball to get the double-digit win. Philip Rivers was 18-of-25 for 256 yards and two touchdowns, which were both hauled in by Eddie Royal. Malcom Floyd had two catches for 98 yards, while Donald Brown ran 31 times for 62 yards and added five catches for 27 yards.

In hopes of earning their third straight win, the Chargers next tackle the winless Jaguars, who come in as massive underdogs once again in Week 4.

Jacksonville's defense has been absolutely atrocious this season. The Jaguars lost 34-17 in the opening week, fell to Washington 41-10 in Week 2, and then got creamed 44-17 at home by Indianapolis this past weekend.

It was bad from the start for Jacksonville. Overall they allowed 529 yards of offense to the red-hot Colts, while accounting for 344 yards themselves.

Because he was so ineffective, Chad Henne was pulled at halftime, with rookie Blake Bortles stepping in for his first taste of regular season action. Bortles was 14-of-24 for 223 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. Allen Robinson had seven catches for 79 yards, Allen Hurns' lone reception came on a 63-yard scoring play, and Cecil Shorts returned to grab five passes for 35 yards and a TD.

Already at 0-3 and staring down another miserable season, it's no surprise that Jacksonville has already turned the reigns over to Bortles. Will the rookie give Jaguars fans something to be excited about?


Suarez Says:
We're eager to see how Bortles fares in his starting debut. It's been clear to pretty much everyone that he's the best quarterback on the roster, and now we get to see how he responds in his first ever NFL start.

Call us crazy, but we actually think this spread may be a little too high, and that Jacksonville offers reasonably good NFL betting value in Week 4. The Jaguars should be more competitive with Bortles leading the way, and they've also recently got Shorts back from injury.

The Chargers have been excellent so far, no one's denying that, but we don't see them blowing Jacksonville out in this spot. Let's add this visiting Jacksonville team, perhaps spurred on by Bortles, to our collection of NFL picks this weekend.

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