Pick Cowboys vs. Bears to go 'Over' 51

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, December 4, 2014 5:19 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2014 5:19 PM UTC

Find out why the best NFL pick you can make for Thursday's Lions vs. Bears match is on the total, instead of the spread or the money line. 

A quick look at the Week 14 NFL money line standings finds that Chicago is 5-7 SU four games behind devision leader GB.  Seven other teams hold a two game lead on the Bears in the playoff race.  Consider them to be towel tosser for the balance of the season.  Dallas currently trails Philly by one game in the NFC EAST.   At this point however they are solidly in the playoff hunt.  Each of these teams enters tonight following a Thanksgiving Day embarrassment. The Bears lost 34-17 to Detroit being out rushed 91-13 and out gained 477-269.  Dallas lost 33-10 to Philly being out rushed  256-93, and out gained 464-267.  Which of these team is best prepared to bounce back? 

Check out our free NFL Pick ATS for Cowboys vs. Bears

The Chicago Bears have been outscored by an average margin of 28-21 for the season.  That corresponds to the fact they are out-gained by an average margin of 376-340 yards per game.  Most disturbing is their 6.2 defensive  yard per play average.  With little hope for the playoffs they could thru in a towel tossing performance in any game. 

Dallas record and statistical profile is superior to that of Chicago.  Dallas runs the ball an average 30 times per a game, for an average of 145/4.8.  They have an efficient offense which averages 6.2 offensive yard per play.  The situation however is very negative for Dallas considering that non division road teams following a Thanksgiving day game are a 26-10 ATS play against.  This fits perfectly with the Dallas record of 2-19 ATS as late season non division favorite.  And remember that QB Romo is just a 20% play ATS as December chalk.  Furthering the negative Dallas situation is that the under dog in Cowboy games is on a 52-17 ATS run, including 8-4 ATS this season.

With each of the teams in negative situation my top play of this game in on the OVER.  Consider that each of these teams has a defense that allows more then 6.0 yards per play.  Before placing your NFL Picks, you must finally note that prime time games are 29-10 OVER this season including 18-2 OVER in non division games.

Free NFL Pick: Bet Over 51 at BetOnline

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