Pick Chargers Moneyline vs. Bills in Week 3 NFL

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 8:32 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2014 8:32 PM UTC

After beating up on the Seahawks in San Diego, the Chargers have to travel across country to face a team that appears to be one of the most undervalued in all of football. The NFL Odds are very even for this game, favoring the Bills at only -1, with a total of 44 points. 

The Bills are 2-0 and seemingly well on their way to the playoffs in the AFC. However can the Chargers slow their fast rise to the top of he AFC East, or will the Bills once again defy expectations?


Antonio Gates; Chargers’ Ageless Wonder
Antonio Gates has been written off time and again over the last few seasons, but last week against the Hawks, he went for seven receptions, almost 100 yards receiving and three touchdowns. He was all over the field, and the Hawks could not account for him, despite the Chargers not having a large wealth of passing options.

Even though the season is young, the Bills have had a couple of really good wins, and the NFL Odds are taking notice by favoring them over the Chargers. However the same sort of issues could affect the Bills potentially going 3-0. Even with the season still only two weeks old, the Bills have given up 16 receptions to opposing tight ends this season, which is tied with the Cardinals and Bengals for the most in the NFL.

If Gates is once again left room to roam the middle of the field, the Chargers are going to slowly pick apart the Bills’ defense. Even though San Diego will be without Ryan Matthews for this game, between Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead, they still have a very capable running attack. If these two are creating problems for the Bills, it could be another big day for Phillip Rivers and Gates.


The Sharp Pick
The Bills are much better than I thought, but the trend still remains that they haven’t played well after getting a SU win. For instance, they are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win. They are also only 6-15-1 ATS following an ATS win after their last 22 wins. However they are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite between ½ and three points.

The San Diego Chargers on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record dating back to the 2013 season. The Chargers are also an incredible 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.

The Bills are far better than the four wins I predicted they would have by the end of the season, but at some point they are going to be overvalued, and I think that time has come. The Chargers are a much more complete football team, and the Bills’ defense is far from the challenge that the Seahawks defense gave the Chargers in Week 2.

Even though they don’t meet often, the Chargers are 7-3 SU in their last ten games against the Bills. With the generous NFL Odds, and even though the Chargers are on the road, I see San Diego coming away with the win and cover for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Chargers +115 at 5Dimes

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