Pick Broncos -10 vs. Bills for Week 14 NFL Betting

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, December 2, 2014 2:14 PM GMT

The NFL odds are stacked against the Buffalo Bills in week 14 NFL betting when they take on the Denver Broncos. Can the Bills defy the odds or will the Broncos come through according to expectations. Find out as we breakdown this matchup and serve up our choice NFL picks.

Buffalo Bills Still In The Hunt
Buffalo Bills' playoff hopes are well and truly alive following back-to-back wins over the last two weeks. In beating the Jets and the Browns in succession the Bills improved to 7-5 SU, tied for second place with Miami Dolphins, who bounced back with a gritty 16-13 win over the Jets in Monday Night Football betting. What's more, with the New England Patriots losing to the Green Bay Packers, the Bills (and Dolphins) are just two wins behind with four games left on the season. There's still everything to play for, including the AFC East title  – although that may be pipedream as long as Tom Brady leads the Patriots.

The Bills aren't getting any favours from the NFL schedulers. At this crucial juncture, they are set to take on one of the toughest nuts to crack on home turf, the Denver Broncos at Mile High. After that they have the Green Bay Packers at home followed by Oakland Raiders on the road (their only winnable game on paper), then the New England Patriots at Foxboro to close out the season on. Yikes.

If they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they are going to have to find a way to overcome these obstacles. Not surprisingly, the NFL odds are stacked against the Bills quite substantially  – to win the division they are matched as the +2800 underdogs, well adrift of the Patriots at -5000 and the Dolphins at +1400.

For their upcoming date with the Broncos, they descend on Mile High as the whopping 10-point underdogs. What the Bills can rely on is defense. Fifth in the league against the pass with 216.1 yards against, it can withstand Peyton Manning and his formidable O-line. What's more, the Bills have the tenth ranked rushing defense that allows just 96.3 yards per game, more than a match for C.J. Anderson and the rest. Most likely, down to that defense, 49% of public money coming down the wire is on the Bills in early NFL betting markets. Still, it would be quite the upset if the Bills were to cover, never mind win straight up.

 

Denver Broncos In Pole Position
Denver Broncos won a pivotal AFC West division clash with the Kansas City Chiefs in week 13 NL betting. Peyton Manning and the Broncos were clutch in a game that had huge implications for their postseason bid. It wasn't a virtuoso performance by Peyton, not his best by any stretch of the imagination as he went 17-of-34 for 179 yards and two touchdowns. But the Broncos defense really stepped up to hold the Chiefs to just 151 yards of total offense, of which 110 were passing and a mere 41 rushing. That's quite a feat for one of the top rushing offenses in the league.

Broncos take a 9-3 SU record on the season into week 14 NFL betting, which features a game advantage over the Chargers and two-game advantage over the Chiefs. With the Chargers scheduled for week 15 NFL betting, a win over the Bills could potentially give the Broncos a nice cushion (Chargers are slated to take on the Patriots in week 14 NFL betting, a game firmly cornered in the Patriots' camp across the NFL odds board).

 

NFL Betting Verdict: Broncos -10 over Bills
Let's not pretend this isn't a high NFL betting spread. It is and Peyton Manning isn't putting up quite the numbers that he was putting up last season. Let's not forget as well, this is a pretty good Bills team and a defense that means business. Still, we believe the Broncos will cover handily. Hence they are our recommended NFL pick even at a high 10-points against the spread.

This is crunch time for the Broncos. Four games are left on the season and the Broncos have their sights set on defending their divisional title. Overall, the Broncos are 6-6 ATS on the season with a 7.1-point margin of victory. At home the Broncos are 3-3 ATS but they boast a 12.8-point margin of victory. Nine times this season the Broncos were favoured by a touchdown or more only to go 5-4 ATS on those occasions. When they did cover those hefty spreads, though, they did so by double digits. Since 2013, the Broncos are 9-6-1 ATS as home favourites with a 14.4-point margin of victory. The Bills have done well to get to the position they find themselves in. But in Peyton Manning and the Broncos, they have one of their biggest challenges, one that might be too much for them to handle.

NFL Picks: Broncos -10.0 at The Greek

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