Pick Bears +3 vs. Saints for Monday Night Football Betting

Jeff Grant

Thursday, December 11, 2014 3:09 PM GMT

Chicago has the right type of offense to attack a much-maligned New Orleans defense, which makes it a dangerous home underdog Monday night.

Ugly Numbers
New Orleans is 1-4 SUATS in its last five games, as hits the road after suffering a forgettable 41-10 defeat to the Carolina Panthers as 8.5-point home favorites last week, while going OVER the betting total for the fourth time in that span.

The Saints are going to have a hard time reversing a betting trend of being 1-7 ATS in their last eight affairs as a road favorite, as their defense ranks 30th in points (27.6) and 31st in yards (398.7) per game allowed.

It’s important to point out that the squad is also last in the league in third down defense—playing a big part in its 3-8 ATS record when laying points in 2014-15.

 

A Lost Season
Chicago is likely playing its final three games under head coach Marc Trestman, as it occupies the cellar in the NFC North standings, while already being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Bears last two wins came in their only two games at Soldier Field last month, which is important to consider when making your Week 15 NFL picks, as they also managed to cover the number as favorites against Minnesota and Tampa Bay in that situation.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in December, with the OVER cashing in eight of those 11 opportunities.

 

Brilliant Under the Spotlight
The Saints have won their last two meetings in this series with Drew Brees under center, as he completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 558 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions.

New Orleans is banking on its leader to improve upon his stellar 9-2 SU record in his last 11 Monday Night Football starts—throwing for 32 touchdowns and six interceptions.

 

Control the Clock
The Bears need to make a concerted effort to run the football, especially since the Saints have given up an average of 183.8 yards on the ground during their recent streak of losing four of their last five games.

Chicago running back Matt Forte has gained 261 yards from scrimmage in his last two games versus New Orleans, while he’s averaged 143.7 yards in that category in his last nine home games.

Expect Forte to have a big game out of the backfield as well, as the opposition is known for its aggressive style of defense, which will provide screen pass opportunities for quarterback Jay Cutler.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Bears and take the points on the NFL odds as one of their top primetime football picks, as the home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this NFC series.

NFL Pick:  Chicago Bears +3 at Bookmaker

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