You can also check out my plays on Russell Wilson’s props as well, however this one is highlighting the Son of the South, Peyton Manning. There are a ton of nice props for Manning’s performance, and I think I have found two with value from Bovada sportsbook.
Total TD Passes
You can get this prop in a variety of different ways, but my favorite Manning TD Prop sandwich is his total TD passes from Bovada. You can wager either the exact number of touchdowns thrown by Manning or a standard one, and I am going with the standard variety.
At 1 ½ touchdowns, the over is priced pretty high, and I’m not sure I want to go down the chalk road for this prop, so I chose to use the price on 2 ½ touchdowns, which is riskier, but potentially more profitable. A bet on the over will net a profit of +105, and I think it’s a good enough value to bet that Manning has three or more TDs against Seattle’s defense.
The Broncos are going to have to throw on the Seahawks because of their stout run defense, and there might be even more throwing in the red zone for the Broncos. It is going to be very difficult for Denver to score on Seattle in the red zone, and the only way might be to spread things out. Running the ball in the red zone is traditionally harder anyways, and going against the best defense in the NFL will make it that much tougher.
My Pick: OVER 2 ½ TDs (+105)
Manning has averaged about 40 pass attempts per game so far in the playoffs, and with that many against such a good defense in Seattle, there is bound to be a pick or two. However the price of betting if there is one interception or not is not that intriguing. There is chalk either way, however a wager on the exact amount of interceptions is solid value in my eyes.
Both 0 and 1 interceptions are priced the same at Bovada, and I think a wager on 1 might be the play. The Seahawks’ secondary is good enough to turn Manning over once in this game, but turning him over twice or more would be something that only two teams have done this season, the Chiefs and Redskins. We are obviously looking for three touchdown, and one interception performance from Manning in this one, but I think the NFL Odds of it happening are good enough for the prices.
Right now, one interception (and zero as well if you want to go that route) from Manning would net a profit of +150, and that kind of value is exactly what I’m looking for in this prop. It is obviously riskier than some, but I think the value is absolutely there.
My Pick: 1 Interception (+150)