Petty, Heaps & the Falcons Earn Our NFL Pick vs. Jets, Sans Geno

Jason Lake

Tuesday, August 18, 2015 12:54 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2015 12:54 PM GMT

The New York Jets are off to a rough start in what could be the post-Geno Smith Era. Their depth issues might make the Atlanta Falcons the right NFL pick this Friday night.

We've created a monster. The New York Jets might not be that different from any other NFL team, but bad things seem to happen more often in the Big Apple for whatever reason. I don't know, could it be... money? For example, the $600 that Jets quarterback Geno Smith may or may not have owed linebacker IK Enemkpali, which may or may not have motivated Enemkpali to punch Smith in the face?

Maybe we just pay more attention because they're in New York. Whatever the case, the Jets are short on quarterbacks now that Smith is out for the next 6-10 weeks with a broken jaw. They got rolled 23-3 by the Detroit Lions last Thursday, and we're all very happy here at the ranch that we were able to revisit our football picks after Enemkpali gave Smith five good reasons why he should settle up. J-E-T-S

 

We'll Be Forever Loving Jaw
Yup, we're going to fade the Jets again this Friday (7:30 p.m. ET) when they host the Atlanta Falcons. This is a matchup between two rookie NFL head coaches in New York's Todd Bowles and Atlanta's Dan Quinn, which means we can't just throw our football picks into the caring hands of their preseason NFL records. We'll have to tease whatever profit margin we can from Smith's injury status.

Plenty has already been written about how the Jets are better off with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback than Geno Smith. We're not about to argue with that; however, as far as Week 2 is concerned, New York is not in good shape to face the Falcons. Fitzpatrick will presumably get in more than the one series he did in Week 1 against Detroit, but we're expecting to see a lot of Bryce Petty on Friday, and maybe some Jake Heaps.

 

Renfree, as Free as the Wind Blows
While Bowles came up dry in his first exhibition game, Quinn is a sparkling 1-0 ATS after the Falcons beat the Tennessee Titans (+2.5 away) 31-24 last week. How much of that was Quinn's doing, and how much of it can be traced to Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt (now 9-20-1 ATS in preseason action)? Good question. Atlanta's first- and second-unit offenses definitely did their part, opening up a 17-0 lead in the first quarter. But Tennessee had evened up the game at 24-24 by the end of the third.

Don't blame third-string QB Sean Renfree, though. He was 6-for-7 for 68 yards and pick-free. And besides, the Falcons won't have to face the same quarterback depth this week against New York that they did against the Titans. We'll put Atlanta in our NFL picks this week, and we'll do it with a moderate amount of confidence.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Falcons +2 at WagerWeb

comment here