Perfecting Week 1 NFL Picks by Inspecting Team Trends

Jordan Sharp

Monday, September 1, 2014 2:51 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 1, 2014 2:51 PM UTC

A full slate of NFL betting action is right around the corner this opening week, and with some very intriguing odds out there, it helps to have a generous handicapper explain where the best value is.

In some of the bigger games this week, there are some nice trends shaping up, and all of them posted here are courtesy of our friends as DonBest and you can apply this insight at SportsBetting


Packers vs. Seahawks
The opener of the season should not disappoint, as the Packers head out west to play the Seahawks. There are some interesting trends shaping up for both the total and the spread of this game. For instance, the under is 8-2 in the Seahawks last ten September games, and the under has cashed in seven games in a row for the Seahawks against conference opponents.

On the spread side, the Seahawks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games as favorites of 3 ½ to 10 points. The Packers on the other hand are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog. It looks as if the Seahawks might be the play here, along with the under potentially.

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Jaguars vs. Eagles
While it may not be a marquee matchup, emerging trends might be enough to give this game the value it needs to become watchable. The NFL odds have the Eagles as -10 favorites in this one, but Philadelphia is only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites of 3 ½ to 10 points. Furthermore, the Eagles are only 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten games in September.

The Jaguars on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their five games as a road underdog, and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five on real grass. 10 points is a lot, and it looks as if the Eagles may be severely overvalued.

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Bills vs. Bears
Another game that might not be the most entertaining could lead to NFL odds value. The Bears are a touchdown favorite at home against Buffalo in Week 1, with a total of 48 ½ points. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 games the Bears have been at home, and favored by 3 ½ to 10 points, and 4-1 in their last five games under the same circumstances.

However on the spread side of things, the Bears aren’t as appealing. Chicago is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points, while Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in their last nine Week 1 games, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in September.

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49ers vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys are a home underdog of +4 ½ in Week 1 against the Niners, and with both teams’ defenses looking like shallow units, this could be a higher scoring game. However don’t overlook the Cowboys ATS either. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog, and Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 1 games.

The Niners also have relatively good trends this week too, making the decision on this game even harder. San Francisco is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite between 3 ½ and 10 points, and the Niners are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. 

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