Patriots vs. Colts Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots +3 ATS

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 12, 2014 5:04 PM GMT

The Indianapolis Colts might have become the most popular team to bet on this year, but when it comes to Sunday night’s matchup with the New England Patriots, more people are adding the Pats to their Week 11 NFL picks.

For Full Props comparison, click HERE
Patriots scores first +115 (best line: 5Dimes)
Colts scores first -125 (best line: Heritage)
Offers 5Dimes | Heritage | BOL | Bovada | SIA

Jason’s record after Week 10: 28-39 ATS, 11-16-1 Totals

Profit: minus-37.63 units

Think fast:
Do you want new and improved, or old and reliable? The sharps have already made their choice, and they’re going with the second option. The New England Patriots are getting as much as a field goal (at various levels of juice) for their Sunday Night Football matchup at The Luke with the Indianapolis Colts; our consensus reports show New England pulling in 59 percent at the open, and shimmying up to 63 percent as we go to press.

Seems like a sensible enough NFL pick. We know what the Patriots are made of, and we’ve seen them beat Indianapolis twice SU and ATS since Andrew Luck took over at quarterback. This is a better Colts team, however, and Luck is a better quarterback now that he’s in his third season as a pro. You could make an argument for picking either team, but whatever decision you make, make sure you get a good deal on your NFL Odds. There’s lots of competition out there with the spread dancing around that magic number three.

 

On the Flip-Flop
If you ignore the recent history of these two clubs, you could easily put your faith in the Colts (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS). They’re slightly ahead of the Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) in the advanced metrics used at both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Reference, which is befitting of a matchup where the Colts are laying around 2.5 to 3 points at home.

Starting with the fresh DVOA numbers, we’ve got the Colts checking in this week at No. 7 in overall efficiency (No. 8 offense, No. 18 defense, No. 5 special teams) and the Patriots at No. 8 overall (No. 9 offense, No. 22 defense, No. 3 special teams). The two teams flip-flopped positions even though both were idle last week.

Meanwhile, the Simple Rating System numbers for Week 10 also have Indianapolis very slightly ahead at plus-9.3, which ranks No. 3 in the league. New England is next at plus-9.2. You could barely slip a piece of paper between these two teams, but once again, the Colts are on top. They’ve also played a somewhat tougher schedule than the Patriots up to this point. That’ll change as the season wears on, but for now, Indianapolis has been sufficiently battle-tested.

 

It Is Your Destiny
Ah, but what have you done for me lately? Well, the Colts responded to their Week 8 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers (+5 at home) by thumping the New York Giants 40-24 as 3-point road faves, so that’s a good sign. But the Patriots haven’t lost a game since Week 4. And they covered three of their five straight wins as small underdogs, versus the Cincinnati Bengals (–2.5 away), the Buffalo Bills (–1 at home) and the Denver Broncos (–3 away). The Colts lost their one game against Denver back in Week 1, although they did cover as 8-point road dogs.

It’s not too often you get a pair of teams who are this closely matched, both on paper and from a larger handicapping perspective. Both are coming off bye weeks, and both are highly popular in the NFL betting marketplace. So for our NFL Pick we’re comfortable adding New England this week. Aside from a slim disadvantage on defense, the Pats have value if you get them at +3, and they’ve got three-time Coach of the Year Bill Belichick under the headset. We’re not betting against Emperor Palpatine this week.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: EVEN
Defense/Special Teams: IND
Coaching: NE
Market Bias: EVEN
Betting Line Value: NE

Verdict: 1-star pick on NE

Free NFL PickBet 1.4 units on the Patriots +3 (–115) at BetCRIS

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