Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 1 NFL Picks: Miami Looks to Win 4th Straight in Rivalry Series
The Miami Dolphins went 2-0 against the New England Patriots last season, but the Patriots were the team that made the postseason. We look at who has the advantage when these two teams meet in Week 1 with our Patriots-Dolphins picks.
The Dolphins will finally get a proper look at wide receiver Tyreek Hill after they acquired him from the Kansas City Chiefs during the offseason. The goal is for Hill to help young quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense become a force to be reckoned with in 2022. Though against the Patriots, the Dolphins have been just fine even without Hill in recent meetings.
Miami has won three consecutive against New England, and it is 3-0 ATS as an underdog in each of those matchups. Though the Dolphins struggled to throw the ball in those meetings, they are averaging 173 rushing yards per game in their last three against the Patriots.
Here are our Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via PointsBet and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Dolphins Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 91 degrees, 61% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis
The spread opened right on the key number, with the Dolphins favored by 3. The line has since moved a half-point in favor of Miami and has settled at 3.5. Seventy percent of the cash is on New England, but 66% of the tickets are on Miami. This signals that the line should move back toward the Patriots by Sunday.
The total opened at 45 and has gone up to 46.5. Half of the tickets and 57% of the cash are on the Over.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Picks
Patriots vs. Dolphins ATS Pick
Patriots +3.5 (-107) ★★★★
Despite the Dolphins’ recent success in this rivalry, this is the first time they are favored over the Patriots since 2013. The Dolphins have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings, but it’s not because they did anything special. It’s because sportsbooks didn’t give them any respect, which allowed Miami to cover mostly easy spreads.
The Dolphins are 7-2 straight up at home in their last nine games against the Patriots, and they have an improved roster from a season ago. However, covering more than a field goal against a division rival that just went to the playoffs seems like an overreaction because of the big-name signing of Hill.
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Patriots vs. Dolphins O/U Pick
Under 46.5 (-107) ★★★
The Under hit in four of the last six matchups between these teams, and in a few of those, the final score wasn’t even close to the total. Many expect the Dolphins' offense to be much improved with Hill, but that doesn’t mean they’re suddenly a team that scores 30-plus points per game. In 2021, they scored 20 or more points 10 times, and they cleared 30 just three times.
The Patriots, meanwhile, had some massive games in 2021. They scored 50 or more points twice, and they cleared 30 two additional times. The Patriots broke the 20-point mark in three of their last five games against the Dolphins, but they cleared 30 just once in their last six.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to want to make a statement by shutting down Hill in his Dolphins’ debut, forcing Miami to beat his team in some other way. The Dolphins may be able to find a way, but they’re going to do so in a grinder of a game, rather than a shootout.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prop Pick
Tagovailoa Under 231.5 passing yards (-115) ★★★★
Tagovailoa threw for more than 230.5 yards just four times in 2021. The teams that he was able to gain yardage against were the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, and New York Giants, four of the worst teams in the NFL a season ago. Against New England, he threw for 202 yards in the season opener, then 109 yards in the season finale.
While the addition of Hill is huge for the Miami offense, it was more than just one wide receiver that was keeping Tua from exploding for massive games. Based on the success of the rushing attack in recent matchups, and the fact that the Patriots are going to plan to slow down this passing attack, this number is too high.
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Patriots-Dolphins picks made 9/7/2022 at 3:39 p.m. ET
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