Matt’s 2018 Individual Game Record: 8-7 (ATS & O/U)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Free NFL Pick: Dolphins ATS
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
Death, taxes and the New England Patriots winning the AFC East. Those are three constants in life, at least since 2001 when Tom Brady took over as the Patriots’ starting quarterback. New England has won the division every year since then but twice: 2002 (Jets) and 2008 (Dolphins, when Brady was lost to a season-ending injury in Week 1). The Pats will add another division title with a win at Miami on Sunday.
New England looked in some trouble entering Week 4 at 1-2 and off back-to-back double-digit losses but stomped the 3-0 Dolphins 38-7. Brady threw for 274 yards and three scores, and Sony Michel rushed for 112 yards and a scored on 25 carries. Brady improved to 15-1 as a starter at home against Miami. The Fins were held to just 172 yards, and QB Ryan Tannehill was pulled in the fourth quarter. Miami gave it away twice and had 10 penalties.
As great as Brady is, and he’s the GOAT, he has struggled in south Florida with a 7-9 record with 15 picks. Last year, the Pats visited on Monday night in Week 14 on an eight-game winning streak and lost 27-20. Brady was picked off twice and New England didn’t have a single third-down conversion. That hadn’t happened to the franchise since 1991 when Brady was 14 years old. Jay Cutler was the Miami QB that night and threw three TD passes. Kenyan Drake rushed for 114 yards and led the team with 79 yards receiving.
That Brady Guy Is Good
New England beat the Vikings 24-10 on Sunday as Brady threw for 311 yards and a TD against one of the NFL’s better defenses. Brady’s 579 career passing TDs, including postseason, are tied with Peyton Manning for the most all-time. Brady also eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing for his career, in his 265th regular-season game. Lamar Jackson he is not! It was the 250th victory for Coach Bill Belichick, including playoffs.
At 9-3, the Patriots have clinched their 18th straight winning season. It is the second-longest streak in NFL history behind 20 seasons from Dallas (1966-85). They are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC but would win a tiebreaker with No. 1 Kansas City.
Miami sits seventh in the AFC at 6-6, a game behind Baltimore. Those teams don’t play if thinking tiebreaker. The Fins ended a two-game losing streak Sunday in a 21-17 win over Buffalo that wasn’t pretty at all. The Bills outgained Miami 415-175 but turned it over three times.
If not for a stupid penalty by Buffalo defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, the Bills might have won. Miami cornerback Xavien Howard had two picks and leads the NFL with seven. Tannehill threw three touchdown passes, including the winner to Kenny Stills in the corner of the end zone with 8:42 remaining. Miami is 5-1 at home (5-1 ATS as well).
- Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Just too many points. Patriots may win but not by more than a touchdown. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six in Miami. Go Fins for a Week 14 NFL pick.