Patriots +1 Over Bills is Best Value on Week 2 Odds Board: NFL Pick

Jason Lake

Saturday, September 19, 2015 6:51 PM GMT

What do you give the New England Patriots, the team that has everything? How about our endorsement as the Best Value on the Board for your Week 2 NFL picks?

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 19: 5-3 ATS; 3-2 Total
 

Nothing comes easy on the football field. The Baltimore Ravens were our Best Value on the Board for Week 1, taking home the prestigious BeeVee trophy and our support as 5-point road dogs versus the Denver Broncos. The Ravens had a payday all sewn up, too – until Joe Flacco threw a pick-six to Aqib Talib with 2:30 left to go. Final score: Denver 19, Baltimore 13.

It's sad to see people reach such high acclaim, only to end up wasting all that talent. The next thing you know for the Ravens, it'll be dinner theater, infomercials, and sparsely-attended one-man shows. We can only hope our next BeeVee winner will make better life decisions in Week 2. Here are the nominees:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 away) vs. New Orleans
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5 away) vs. Pittsburgh
New England Patriots (PK away) vs. Buffalo
Oakland Raiders (+6.5 at home) vs. Baltimore
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5 at home) vs. Miami

And the winner is... the New England Patriots? Yes, the Patriots are the Best Value on the Board as a pick 'em in Buffalo. Here to accept the award, performing his rendition of “Pump It Up” by Elvis Costello, is team owner Robert Kraft and the famous Kraft Group singers... what's that? I'm being told Mr. Kraft has been involved in an unfortunate encounter backstage with a vat of processed cheese. We'll be sure to get this award to his people.

 

Pats per Square Inch
The Patriots definitely don't fit the template for what we'd consider a classic value pick. They've got tons of public support, so chalk is always nipping at their heels. The 2015 campaign started off with a 28-21 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5 away); we were fortunate to bag New England at –6.5, before the public came in and drove the spread past the breaking point.

There's every danger that the public will do it again before Sunday's kick-off (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). But as we go to press, the Pats are available as cheap as +1 in a situation where the Elo Ratings at FiveThirtyEight “value” New England at –2. Indeed, there are a few books on our NFL odds board who have the Patriots laying two points. It pays to shop around.

The Elo Ratings won't have accounted for the arrival of Rex Ryan in Buffalo, so we have to treat these numbers with even more care than normal. However, the Patriots had two-thirds consensus for this matchup right out of the gate, and this team has been a solid choice for our NFL picks ever since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady took over. We're on the champs at this bargain price. No pressure, guys. No pressure at all.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Patriots +1 (–111) at William Hill

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