Parlay Fever: Sunday January 20, AFC Championship Game

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Parlay Fever: Sunday January 20, AFC Championship Game

New England (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) at Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)

Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS)

Free NFL Picks: Chiefs and Over

Best Lines: Pinnacle

The NFL odds say Kansas City is a three-point home favorite over New England. In reviewing other figures, we find that Tom Brady has won 28 playoff games over a career that spans back to when Bon Jovi was singing “It’s My Life”. (Sort of fits right.) Patrick Mahomes, he’s won the only postseason playoff game he’s been in and that was last Saturday.

This matchup has been viewed from almost every conceivable angle at this point, so let’s take it down to gut levels. After a season in which New England was roundly viewed as a sinking dynasty and everyone agreed that the talent is not the same as prior teams that played for the AFC championship. Just a few days after an extremely impressive performance over the Chargers, now there is outrage about Patriots being an underdog in Kansas City and Brady is not pleased about being disrespected. (Again, enough already Tom)

We all know about Brady’s unparalleled success, with the same going for Bill Belichick and the playoff failures of Andy Reid. But if facts matter, the B&B combination was 3-5 SU and ATS this year on the road and in their last eight playoff games on the road or at neutral sites, they are 2-6 SU. Believe it or not, New England will not be the only team with a modified game plan from the previous contest, as Reid will have a few surprises also. And as bad as the Kansas City defense has looked at times this season, at Arrowhead, they have allowed 17.4 PPG, which is tied for 3rd in the NFL at this moment. Take the Chiefs.
Final Score: Kansas City 31-27

As far as the total, which is moving back up to 55.5, read my thoughts here.

The Patriots and Chiefs Teasers and First Half Wagering

This is what a 6-point teaser on the side and total would look like for this contest.

  • Side Teaser: New England +9 or Kansas City +3
  • Totals Teaser: Over 49.5 or Under 62.5

For the teaser in this one, on the rare occasion I could be wrong (OK, it happens more than that), I will snag New England at +9 and here is why. When it comes to teasers, for my money it is about being on the right side of the most important numbers. Having Kansas City at +3 makes perfect sense, but so does taking the Patriots beyond key numbers like six and seven. Additionally, the Pats are 61-9 as an underdog in a 6-point teaser.

On the total, the temperature situation has greatly improved from the single digits to a low expected of 22. However, if you watched last week’s game at Arrowhead, the field was soft and slow and I expect both teams to run the ball and I’ll take the UNDER 60.5.

For NFL picks on first half betting, this is the best choice: Play UNDER on home teams like K.C when the first half total is 25 or higher, who score 24 or more points a game, after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests. (37-12 Under)

The Patriots vs. Chiefs Side Prop Bets

  • Patriots vs. Chiefs – Will Either Team Score in the First 5 1/2 Minutes of the Game

Look for both defenses to have a few tricks ready to go and with nerves and pressure, not sure there will be points in the early going without a turnover. Taking the NO as -130.

  • Patriots vs. Chiefs – Shortest Made Field Goal of the Game O/U 26.5 (-115)

This seems like a mistake doesn’t it? Hell yea on OVER.

  • Patriots vs. Chiefs – Over/Under Largest Lead of the Game O/U 14.5 (After Conversion Attempt)

I’m going the Under (-120), thinking this contest will not see a team lead by more 13 points.

  • New England vs. Kansas City: Fantasy Football Matchup – Edelman vs. Hill

With the Chiefs having so much diversity and ways to create pick plays, let’s take Hill at +1 (-115)

  • Will There Be An On-Side Kick Attempt In The Conference Championship Round?

With this title game and other one having a point spread of fewer than four points, back YES at -130.