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Parlay Fever: Saturday January 12 NFL Playoff Divisional Games

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Parlay Fever: Saturday January 12 NFL Playoff Divisional Games

Indianapolis (11-6 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) at Kansas City (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET (NBC)

Free NFL Picks: Colts and Over

Best Lines: Pinnacle

This is a rather captivating encounter for a variety of reasons. It starts Kansas City as the top seed in the AFC and Indianapolis rolling through the NFL like a snow plow pushing everything out its way on a 10-1 run. As is the key to all football games, it’s about the play in the trenches and that is where it starts on both sides of the ball for the Colts. Their O-Line has been dominating and D-Line has sparkled and made plays. While Kansas City is a deserving No.1 seed, they closed the season 2-6-1 ATS. With Indy catching +5.5 points against the NFL odds, I found road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards per attempt in four straight games are 27-8 ATS.

For the total, the OVER is most appealing at 57, knowing Kansas City is 10-2 OVER this season when both teams score 20 or more points.

Final Score: Indianapolis 34-31

The Colts and Chiefs Teasers and First Half Wagering

This is what a 6-point teaser on the side and total would look like for this contest.

  • Side Teaser: Indianapolis +11.5 or Kansas City +0.5
  • Totals Teaser: Over 51 or Under 63

There is nothing wrong in taking Kansas City for the teaser if you feel they will win the game. However, this sports betting writer and handicapper does not and I love the value of pressing thru key numbers like 6, 7 and 10 for added value on Indianapolis. The average score of a Chiefs game is 59.6 PPG and not sure the K.C. defense will slow Andrew Luck down, making the OVER on the teaser total work in this NFL Playoff encounter.

Look for both teams to feel each other out early and here is the best bet for the first half. Play UNDER on teams like Indianapolis for a 1st half total after going under the total by 35 or more points in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75% win percentage), playing a team with a winning record. (27-7 ATS)

The Colts vs. Chiefs Side Prop Bets

  • Colts vs. Chiefs – Will Either Team Score in the First 5 1/2 Minutes of the Game?

Too much good offense and somewhat limited defense, take YES (-110) to win.

  • Colts vs. Chiefs – Longest Touchdown of the Game – O/U 48.5

Both teams will surrender points, but not sure about big plays, let’s choose the UNDER (-115).

  • Colts – Total Points – O/U 26.5

As stated, definitely backing the OVER.

  • How Many Road Teams Will Win Divisional Round Weekend 0 to 4?

Going to say one (+160) and going with Indianapolis, but still like one.

Dallas (11-6 SU, 8-7-2 ATS) at L.A. Rams (13-3 SU, 7-7-2 ATS)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)

Free NFL Picks: Rams and Over

Best Lines: Pinnacle

Rest assured, there will be a large contingent of handicappers and people reportedly in the know taking Dallas at +7 over the Rams. I will not unequivocally say they are wrong, nonetheless, I choose to disagree. Nobody knows the exact status of Todd Gurley, but if he’s good enough to play, he will go. My guess is Sean McVay was not going to take any chances and wanted him close to 100 percent.

The Dallas defense had more cracks in the latter part of the season and since holding New Orleans to only 10 points, they have permitted 24.6 PPG since, which is 20 percent more than their first dozen contests. Also, cannot overlook the Cowboys average 17.4 PPG on the road which was the worst of any playoff team, while the Rams were the top-scoring home team at 37.1 PPG.

With L.A. a solid 5-2-1 OVER at home, also siding with the OVER 49.5.

Final Score: L.A. Rams 31-20

The Cowboys and Rams Teasers and First Half Wagering

This is what a 6-point teaser on the side and total would look like for this contest.

  • Side Teaser: Dallas +12 or L.A. Rams -1
  • Totals Teaser: Over 43.5 or Under 55.5

While Dallas is attracting attention on the point spread, almost nobody is calling for them to win. With the Rams 7-1 SU at home this season and the average score 65.2 total points, the value seems to be the home team favored by a single digit and the OVER for a two-teamer teaser winner.

Here is something noteworthy for a 1st half wager, home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line, after one or more SU wins, against an opponent after three or more consecutive wins are 42-15 ATS.

The Cowboys vs. Rams Side Prop Bets

  • Cowboys vs. Rams – Team to Score First

Having lost in this exact game a year ago, look for Los Angeles to be aggressive and ready from the start. Take the Rams (-165).

  • Rams Win By 07-10 Points and Rams Win By 11-13 Points

With the first prop a +500 payout and second one +1200, take your standard wager, split into two equal parts and if correct, you lowered risked and picked up a nice profit.

  • Cowboys vs. Rams – Longest Touchdown of the Game – O/U44.5

With the Dallas secondary not as strong as early in the season, like Goff to hook up with one of his receivers for a big play. Take the OVER.

  • How Many Missed Field Goals Will There Be On Divisional Round Weekend? O/U 3

With a game in a dome, one in L.A. and Baltimore and the Chargers having hot kickers, let’s go with the UNDER (-155) in this prop.