Parlay Fever: Get Max Betting Experience from Browns-Steelers Game

Doug Upstone

Thursday, October 25, 2018 4:33 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 25, 2018 4:33 PM UTC

The Cleveland Browns travel to the Steel City to take on their arch-rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The winner takes the season series because they tied 21-21 to start the season.

Cleveland at PittsburghSunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)Free NFL Picks: Steelers ATS and 'Over'Best Lines Offered: Bookmaker

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For Cleveland, this is a very meaningful game. No, the Browns are not going to playoffs or anything like that. Think about this: The Browns have not taken a season series since this Cleveland franchise came into existence in 1999. You have to go back all the way to 1988 for the last time Cleveland won a season series. In real time (taking out the three years the Browns did not have a football team), it has been 22 years since Brownies took a season series.

The NFL odds are not in the favor of Cleveland for Sunday's game in Pittsburgh. The Browns are 8-point road underdogs with the total at 49.

Since their Week 1 matchup the Browns have installed Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Four weeks ago Mayfield threw for 304 yards against Oakland, but opposing teams have taken deep passes away from the rookie and he's largely hit underneath routes, which has led to fewer explosive plays.

Pittsburgh has shown improvements both on offense and defense in terms of consistency. This is why for NFL picks I'll side with the Steelers, who are 11-3 ATS versus teams allowing 5.65 or more yards per play.

The total is more confusing because just seven weeks ago it was 41. The 49 points are the highest ever in this series and three of the last four times they have met in Pittsburgh, that was the right call. With Pitt 13-3 "over" at home after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games, let's take the "over."

Teasers and First-Half Wagering

This is what a 6-point teaser on the side and total would look like for this contest:

Side Teaser: Cleveland +14 or Pittsburgh +2
Totals Teaser: Over 42 or Under 55

Pittsburgh's offense has a much better flow since the start of the season and the defense has made strides in improving. This is a numbers-valued teaser as we slide under 7, 6 and 3 which places us in a good spot if a closer-than-anticipated conflict occurs. In addition, the Steelers are 30-3 against a teaser line at home games versus division opponents.

The total is more perplexing because earlier in the week it was 51, which would have meant an "under" 57 teaser, which I actually bet. I still have enough faith in this number since my numbers have a final score of the Steelers winning 31-20.

While this matchup always means more to the Browns, they have started slowly in most games and are averaging 5.7 points in the first half. Contrast that to Mike Tomlin's guys who are at 16.5 points after 30 minutes and we give the -4.5.

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Side Prop Bets

Will Either Team Score in the first 6 Minutes of Game: Because this game will have a fever pitch to it, I'll back the Yes at -110.

Steelers Total Points Over/Under 28: If you dump Cleveland permitting just nine points against a flat Ravens bunch, in their three other most recent contests, they have allowed an average of 36.3 PPG. Take the "over."

Longest Touchdown Over/Under 44.5: With Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown at home against Cleveland's 26th's ranked pass defense, I'll take the "over" at -115.

Most Passing Yards for Week 8: Let's take Big Ben two ways, first, in the highest number of passing yards where he's at +1200 odds and to finish in the top 3 at +240. Hit either or both and we made money.

Most Receiving Yards for Week 8: The Steelers' Brown is the second choice behind Minnesota's Adam Thielen at +1400 and he's at +280 to finish in the top 3. Looking for the same result as passing yards.

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