Parlay Fever: Dolphins at Packers - The Maximum Betting Experience

Brock Osweiler

Doug Upstone

Thursday, November 8, 2018 5:25 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018 5:25 PM UTC

When the Miami Dolphins saw their 2018 schedule, they were relieved that their trip to face the Green Bay Packers was in early November, not a month or more later when it really becomes the frozen tundra.

Miami (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Green Bay (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS)Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)Free NFL Picks: Dolphins ATS and OverBest Lines: Sports Betting

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Here is a fact nobody is talking about, not even much in South Beach. The Miami Dolphins have the sixth-best record in the AFC, which means they are on the tip of making the playoffs. However, nobody is really taking them seriously because they have a -38 point differential and all other teams that are within 10 points of that number have losing records with the best at 3-5.

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.@mikespofford & @WesHod examine the Miami Dolphins on both sides of the ball & talk about the #Packers' latest transactions.#PackersUnscripted 🎥: https://t.co/5UnzicbwCV pic.twitter.com/rbWYvLWrFB

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) 7 de novembro de 2018
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Green Bay has proved to be a rather average team this season. Yet, a win this week brings the Packers back to .500 and if there is one thing history has shown is that if and when Aaron Rodgers gets hot, the Pack can rattle off five wins in a row at a moment's notice.

The NFL odds have Green Bay as a 10-point favorite with a total of 47.5.

While Brock Osweiler is nothing more than a journeyman quarterback, his numbers are about the same as Ryan Tannehill's on the rare occasion he's healthy. If you deduct the Packers shutting out Buffalo, on their other six most recent contests, they are permitting 30 PPG, making it realistic Miami gets their season average of 20. The Dolphins D can be had and it's not unrealistic to think Green Bay does not reach 30 points, topping out at 27 or 28. This makes our NFL picks Miami and a lean with the Over.

The Dolphins and Packers Teasers and First Half Wagering

This is what a 6-point teaser on the side and total would look like for this contest.

Side Teaser: Miami +16 or Green Bay -4
Totals Teaser: Over 41.5 or Under 53.5

Given I took Miami on side action, logic would dictate to take I should back them on this teaser. Yet, one thing lingers in my head for the choice I just made and looking at this teaser, what if Rodgers goes off. It's not like that has not happened before at Lambeau Field. If by chance Green Bay does cover the spread, I can rebound on that bet by having this teaser be correct and hitting the total. With this in mind, it's Green Bay -4.

On the teaser total, all over the Over 41.5 and it's backed up by the Packers being 35-4 OVER the teaser total at home versus defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt.

As far as the first half wager, the Green and Gold get the call. Off two road losses, coach Mike McCarthy will be looking for a hot start. Normally I might shy away from a -5.5 or -6, but not this time because 1st half favorites off a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers, against an opponent that had a turnover margin of +4 or better, are 29-9 ATS.

The Dolphins vs. Packers Side Prop Bets

Dolphins vs. Packers - Will Either Team Score in the first 6 Minutes of Game
One of two things will happen and both involve the same outcome. Either the Packers get the ball first and hit a big play for a touchdown on their first drive or their defense is not ready to play and Miami goes down the field and scores. Either way, I'll back the -105.

Dolphins Total Points - OVER/UNDER 18.5
Oddsmakers are making you pay more for the OVER (-125) and I will back that up.

Dolphins vs. Packers - Total Points Scored by Range
Based on previous comments, I will take 43-49 total points with the odds at +375.

Dolphins vs. Packers - First Score of the Game - Touchdown (-175) or Other (+150)
I have no problem taking the touchdown and it would not surprise me one bit since I expect the game to start 7-7.

Most Passing Yards Week 10 - Top 3 Finish
Rodgers is tied for the 3rd best odds at +280 and would seem to have a legit shot, especially chucking the pigskin at home.

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