Panthers vs. Seahawks NFL Picks: Back Both Defenses to Step Up in Low-Scoring Game

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 18, 2015 12:35 AM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 12:35 AM GMT

It's a feeding frenzy on the UNDER for Week 6. Even the lowest total on the NFL odds board is getting pounded, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Carolina Panthers.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 16: 18-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-19 Total

We've seen this movie before. The Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers are two of the better defensive teams in the NFL, and when they get together during the regular season, things tend to bog down. Each of their three games under the current coaching regimes went well UNDER the posted total; the highest combined score they managed was 28 points.

Hope you like punting exhibitions. The Seahawks host the Panthers this Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX), and go figure, this is the lowest total on the Week 6 NFL odds board, dropping from 41 at the open to 40.5 at press time. Too low to bet the UNDER? Two out of three early bettors disagree, according to our consensus reports.

 

God Bless Cascadia
We might be inclined to jump on board, although once again we're left here holding the bag after the sharps got in good. There aren't any totals more magical than 41; the fair price for buying a half-point down to 40.5 is 10.6 cents, according to Wizard of Odds, the same price you'd pay to get off 10 points when you're making your NFL picks against the spread. Good thing there's still a 41 on the board at press time.

We're also happy to report that Seattle is a rainy place. Monsoon season is about to envelop the Pacific Northwest – okay, maybe that's a stretch, but this is a temperate rainforest we're talking about. The forecast at kick-off calls for a 35-percent chance of rain over The Clink, with the skies not expected to clear until Tuesday. See the rain pour through the gaping wound, pelting the Panthers and Seahawks.

 

Use the Force, Luke
Who run into the arms... of each other. In recent years at least, these two teams have been built on the ground game as well as strong defense. Running is still Seattle's bread-and-butter, even if the offensive line's a mess; the Seahawks rank fourth in rushing efficiency this year, compared to just No. 22 through the air. It's not easy to move the chains when your quarterback is face-down on the FieldTurf. Carolina's offense is No. 13 in rushing and No. 18 in passing through Week 5.

As for those vaunted defenses, the Panthers are fifth overall (No. 4 pass, No. 21 rush) in efficiency thus far, while Seattle is lagging a bit at No. 12 overall (No. 17 pass, No. 9 rush). But the Seahawks are moving up the charts now that Kam Chancellor is back at safety. Carolina's run defense should also improve from here with LB Luke Kuechly (concussion) expected to return after missing three games. Alas, DE Jared Allen (pinched nerve) won't be joining them. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch (hamstring) is supposed to play on Sunday, too, but how healthy is he? Color us skeptical enough to recommend a very small bet on the UNDER.

NFL Picks: Take UNDER 41 at Bovada

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