Panthers-Saints Wild-Card Player Prop Pick: Brees 'Over' 1.5 TD Passes

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, January 4, 2018 3:43 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018 3:43 PM UTC

It’s finally time for some playoff football! There is also a ton of parity in the NFL playoffs this season, which could make for some great NFL wagers on the player props at 5Dimes sportsbook.

Drew Brees O/U 1½ Passing Touchdowns

In eight of his 16 games this season, the Saints' Brees had two or more passing touchdowns. He tossed at least two TDs in five of his eight home games during the regular season as well, so even though the 'over' is a bit chalky at -140, I’m making it one of my playoff prop wagers as the Saints host the Panthers on Sunday.

Only 10 teams gave up more passing yards than Carolina this season, and toward the end of the year the Panthers’ secondary looked gassed. They gave up back-to-back 300-yard passing performances to Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston to close out the season, and before that Minnesota and Green Bay put up 280 and 290 passing yards, respectfully, on them.

Even though Brees and the Saints have relied more on their running game this season than in recent years, the Panthers have been one of the best run defenses in the league this season. The Carolina ’ defense gave up just 7 rushing touchdowns this season compared to 25 through the air, and their red zone defense finished eighth-best in the league. The Saints have one of the most talented running back duos in the league, but while I think New Orleans can move the ball via the run, when the game gets inside the red zone I see Brees having to pass for scoring more.

Brees has dropped four total passing touchdowns on this Panthers defense in 2017, and here in 2018 I think two or more is a good bet for Wild-Card Weekend.

Free NFL Pick: Over 1½ (-140)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes
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