Panthers O-Line Could Take Super Bowl 50 Numbers Over The Total

Doug Upstone

Thursday, January 28, 2016 4:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016 4:14 PM GMT

The total for Super Bowl 50 opened at 45 and during the first week, a little over half the sportsbooks raised it to 45.5. We review how to make our Super Bowl 50 picks around the total.

Hundreds Of Proposition Wagers Available At SBR's Super Bowl 50 Betting Guide

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Free Super Bowl Pick: Over 45
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

The total for Super Bowl 50 opened at 45 and during the first week when football bettors could pick it apart, a little over half the sportsbooks raised it to 45.5, otherwise, expectedly quiet. This is certainly not unusual, as those liking the favorite will bet those NFL odds right away and very likely also wager on the OVER.

As far as the number itself, I think it is dead on, with two scores swimming around in my head, either 24-20 and 27-20. Without too much effort, I can make a case for both and feel comfortable with either decision for my Super Bowl picks. You too have to come up with a decision and whether it is Over or Under the oddsmakers number, that is up to you, just let us help you with the process.

 

Here Is Why Super Bowl 50 Is UNDER Play
You do not need a degree from MIT to see why this contest could end up below the number. Denver was the best defensive team in the NFL almost the entire season and ranks in the Top 5 of every important meaningful statistic this season. You need tweezers and magnifying glass to find fault with this crew, ranked first in total defense (283.1 yards a game), first in passing yards defense (199.6 YPG), first in sacks (52), third in running yards (83.6 YPG) and fourth in points allowed (18.5). Nothing has changed in the postseason holding high-powered offenses like Pittsburgh and New England to 16 and 18 points respectively.

Carolina is a little further behind, but not a great deal more. The Panthers are sixth in total defense (322.9 YPG), fourth in run defense (88.4) and points allowed (19.3), sixth in sacks (44) and eighth in yards per point.

Because of the nature of both quarterbacks, they would not seem to have strengths that match up well against these mighty stop troops. If the Broncos D had any weakness, it was against a club like Pittsburgh, who would throw the pigskin all over the yard with tremendous receivers, something Carolina lacks despite how many points they score, plus, it is not what they do best. Denver is 8-2 UNDER after two or more consecutive victories.

The Denver offense is more likely to run first to set up play-action passing for Peyton Manning, which is not anything the Carolina defenders have not faced.

 

Here Is Why Super Bowl 50 Is OVER Play
No matter how you view it, Carolina is an outstanding offensive team averaging 32.2 PPG. If you toss out the dull effort in their only loss of the season at Atlanta, they have scored anywhere from 31 to 49 points in eight other contests since Nov. 22nd. As domineering as Denver's defense has been, you can make the case Cam Newton and company have done the same on the opposite side of the ball.

Though we cannot overlook playing at home has helped, the last two weeks Ron Rivera's squad has jumped on the No.1 (Seattle) and No.7 scoring defenses (Arizona) in the NFL and pummeled them in the first half, taking the game right to them and why would this honestly be any different this time around? The 'Cats are 9-1 OVER after two or more consecutive spread wins.

Although this is not the kind of Peyton Manning offense we have seen for a long time, we are not talking about the San Francisco 49ers of this past year. Denver is still averaging a consistent 22.1 PPG and it is not beyond reason to think they will come very close to the same number, in part because Denver defense will set up a few shorter fields where Manning can take advantage.

 

The Super Bowl 50 Totals Outcome
This will not be a big play for me, because as I stated, I think the oddsmakers have this right. Nonetheless, I cannot overlook Carolina has forced the most turnovers in the NFL and while Manning has been better in taking care of the ball, there is still wariness for me with Carolina already having defensive scores in the postseason. To a lesser degree, if the Denver's defense can mess with Newton's thought process, they can set up their offense for easy score also.

In addition, as I mentioned, I fully expect the Broncos defense along with the Panthers to create some short fields, which either offense can and will turn into points. One angle that really stands out to me is Carolina is 7-0 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better this season and what I find fascinating is they allowed 22.6 PPG in those seven tilts.

Not an overwhelming choice, but the OVER is my call.

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