Packers vs. Saints NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

Despite all their issues, the New Orleans Saints are a sneaky-good NFL pick for Sunday’s season-opener versus the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 04:25 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field

When is a home game not a home game? When it’s played on the road, of course. Thanks to Hurricane Ida, the New Orleans Saints had to move their 2021 season-opener to Jacksonville. As if they didn’t have enough to worry about; this is the first year since 2005 that the Saints won’t have Drew Brees under center. That can’t be good.

And yet here we are recommending New Orleans for your Week 1 NFL picks. I know, right? They’re taking on the Green Bay Packers, who are laying as we go to press; that’s up from 2.5 points when they were supposed to be playing at the Superdome. Home-field matters, of course, but the fact that we’re crossing the magic number 3 is critical here. And the Saints aren’t the only team in this matchup that will be inconvenienced by the change in venue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VivBPkM1BDA

David Strategies

Granted, we’ve been burned by Aaron Rodgers before. Everyone here at the ranch thought the Packers were due for a fall last year – then they went 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS, with Rodgers winning the MVP award for the third time. That was partly smoke and mirrors, though; Green Bay’s plus-140 point differential on the season works out to a Pythagorean record of 11-5. The regression monsters will feed at some point.

What better time than now? Three-time Pro Bowl LT David Bakhtiari will miss the first six weeks of the regular season recovering from a torn ACL. He was the league’s top pass blocker last year, according to the fine folks at Pro Football Focus. It was already going to be very hard for Rodgers and the Packers to sustain their incredible red-zone touchdown rate (80 percent) and beat the NFL odds again this year. It’ll be even harder without Bakhtiari clogging up the middle.

https://twitter.com/Saints/status/1434886087684546562?s=20

Winston Gold

Obviously, the Saints have even bigger problems with their offense. Jameis Winston will take over for Brees, with Taysom Hill chipping in on package plays like he did last year; Winston famously became the charter member of the 30-30 Club (33 TD passes, 30 INTs) in his fifth and last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, before they kicked him to the curb and signed Tom Brady. Did he learn anything from Brees in their brief time together?

We’ll find out soon enough. In the meantime, FiveThirtyEight project Green Bay to win by 2.5 points, and Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today likes the Packers by 2.81 points.

It’s generally hot and wet and miserable in Jacksonville right now and should remain so all week, so at least Winston (who also played at Florida State) should be more used to the weather than Rodgers. Let’s see if we can take advantage of these NFL lines in the midst of all this chaos, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.