Packers vs. Cardinals NFL Picks: Side With Green Bay +4.5

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 9:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 22, 2015 9:05 PM UTC

Two viable Super Bowl 50 contenders from the NFC collide on Sunday when the Packers take on the Cardinals. Join us as we preview this game and serve up our choice NFL picks.

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NFL Pick: Packers +4.5

Best Line Offered: at Heritage 


Green Bay Packers (10-4 SU, 5-2 away)
Ever since Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary for the ages in a 27-23 win over the Lions that rescued the crucial W and plummeting the Packers’ season into complete and utter uncertainty, they haven’t looked back. Reeling off two more wins –over the Cowboys and Raiders – the Green Bay Packers improved to 10-4 SU and clinch a playoff spot. The last two games of the season are still pivotal towards where the broad spectrum of the playoffs and the task couldn’t be any tougher for the Packers when they take on the red hot Cardinals, flush off a commanding 40-10 win over the Eagles on the road.

The magnitude of the task is nowhere more so evinced than on the NFL odds board where the Packers are trading as the 4-to-4.5-point road underdogs. Overall, the Packers are 5-2 SU at home and on the road. Their losses on the road have come to Denver and Carolina, only two of the best teams in the NFL this season. The Arizona Cardinals certainly fall into that mix, making a Packers win on the road a challenge.

They Packers are 9-5 ATS overall on the season with a 5.9-point winning margin and a plus 0.5-point differential against the spread. On the road, they are 5-2 ATS with a 3.7-point winning margin and a plus 0.4-point differential against the spread.


Arizona Cardinals (12-2 SU, 5-1 home)
The Arizona Cardinals are correctly favored for this game after underscoring their top credentials with their twelfth win of the season, a franchise record they achieved on Sunday Night when they dismissed the incontinent Philadelphia Eagles 40-10.

The Cardinals are enjoying a banner season by their standards and Carson Palmer is having one of his best terms in recent memory. This is a well-coached and disciplined group that nobody will want to face in the playoffs when the time comes.

At home, the Cardinals are a convincing 5-1 SU on the season – the lone hiccup coming against the St. Louis Rams earlier this season. Overall, they are 8-6 ATS with a whopping 12.6-point winning margin and a plus 7.6-point differential against the spread. Importantly, though, they’ve only covered four of their last nine games. That’s something that could suggest contrarian value is on the Packers at least where spread betting is concerned.

That notion is further encouraged by just a 2-4 ATS mark at home, which includes a 10.7-point winning margin and a plus 4-point differential against the spread. In fact, they are 0-3 ATS in their last three home games against the Vikings, Bengals and Ravens, twice failing to cover 10-point spreads and once a 4-point spread (the Bengals game that resulted in a 34-31 win at home).


NFL Betting Verdict
Given the aforementioned NFL betting trends of each team on the season, it’s no surprise that consensus betting at SBR reveals fairly split betting on this game at early doors.  The Packers have 52.33% of spread tickets but just 49.95% of the total money risked. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have 47.67% of the spread tickets but 50.05% of the total money risked. It’s early days yet and these numbers are sure to swell either way as more betting comes down the wire. What is evident though is that both these teams are going to attract their fair share of bettors down the stretch.

As it is, it’s shaping up to be one of the toughest games to call on our NFL picks. There’s good reason to back either side for your money line or spread NFL picks. For our money, we’re going with the Packers as the 4.5-point underdogs, simply because this is sure to be a hard fought game with a lot at stake for both teams.

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