Packers vs. Broncos NFL Picks: Back Green Bay to Stay Undefeated

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 1, 2015 12:31 AM GMT

Two undefeated teams will enter the stadium. Which one will come out intact: the Denver Broncos, or the Green Bay Packers? The NFL odds say it'll be Green Bay.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 30: 22-17-1 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-26 Total

It's no secret: The Denver Broncos aren't all that. They might be 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, but it took a whole lot of smoke and mirrors – and defensive touchdowns – for Denver to make it this far undefeated. Compare and contrast to the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS), who have won each of their six games by at least a touchdown. It's not even close.

Neither is the betting action for Sunday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). We mentioned earlier this week how the sharps were pounding Green Bay at the open; our expanded consensus reports show almost 90 percent of the monies wagered landing on the Packers, at an incredibly high volume. That's with the Broncos getting as many as 3.5 points on our NFL odds boad – at home, no less. My goodness.

 

Unleash Peyton Manning
So we all know the narrative by now: Peyton Manning is washed up. He's still crafty enough to engineer a game-winning touchdown drive, but Manning's right arm is a wet noodle at this juncture. Denver isn't putting enough points on the board to avoid all these close shaves in the first place. The UNDER is 4-2 for the Broncos, by the way, and the total at press time has moved from 43 to 45.5, so there's a potential NFL pick for you.

Be that as it may, football is a team sport, and Denver has the No. 1-ranked defense in the league in terms of efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. The Broncos also have some sweet special teams (No. 10 overall), so even though they've got the worst offense in the NFL, Denver still checks in at No. 11 on the DVOA charts through Week 7. Tim Tebow says hi.

 

Rocky Mountain Low
The Packers, meanwhile, are solid in just about every aspect of the game. They're third in the league in efficiency (No. 4 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 9 special teams), they're reasonably healthy, and they're coming off the bye week – as are the Broncos. The weather report looks good, so Green Bay should have every opportunity to manifest its advantage Sunday night.

How big is that advantage, though? For a rough estimate, we turn to the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football Reference. They've got the Packers pegged at +7.5 SRS and the Broncos at +3.7 SRS. Uh-oh. Give Denver, oh, 2.3 points for home-field advantage, and you get an approximate spread of... let's see, carry the one... Green Bay –1.5.

Close, but no cigar. There might be some wisdom in picking Denver as a home dog, but with all that big money on the Packers, we're going to stand on the shoulders of the wiseguys and stick with Green Bay. It is what it is.

NFL Pick: Take the Packers –2.5 (–115) at BetOnline

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