Packers vs. Bears NFL Picks: Rodgers to Lead Green Bay to Victory in Chicago

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 11, 2015 11:11 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 11, 2015 11:11 PM UTC

We looked at this Sunday's Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears game and found our NFL Crusher of the Week pick so you can beat the NFL odds.

Green Bay Packers (-6) at Chicago Bears - 1:00 PM ET 
Each week in this space, I will isolate the NFL Crusher of the Week. It will be an NFL pick that will be a blend of statistical, situational and technical analysis that will result in an outstanding opportunity for you to put the NFL odds in your favor. Look for this favorite to crush their opponent at the point of attack, control matters overland and rush their way to a dominating victory in this week’s contest. Here is this week’s winner.

Divisional rivals, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, kick off the first Sunday of the 2015 NFL season. These two franchises have a long and storied history against each other. Recently, however, the pendulum has swung the way of the Green Bay Packers. Last year on this field, Green Bay won this matchup by a score of 38-17. They recorded that victory in spite of the fact that the Bears outrushed the Packers 235-56 (highly unusual). The rematch came in Green Bay on November 9th; the yardage swung the way of the Packers, 455-311, while the score was even more lopsided at 55-14. Much has changed, especially for the Chicago Bears since the 2014 season, but tonight I expect the results between these two to look very similar to last season. This is the one game on the card where one NFL team is most likely to crush the other. 

In the last two seasons, the Bears were led by HC Marc Trestman, an offensive guru who made his mark on that side of the ball by coaching in the CFL. Yet last year, the Bears could average just 20 PPG on only 327 YPG, with a running attack that averaged just 90 RYPG. In short, Trestman took them from a team who was 10-6 SU in 2012, and led them to seasons of 8-8 and 5-11, with an 11-21 ATS record. This season, the Bears have hired former Denver HC John Fox. Unlike the departed Trestman, Fox had a highly successful career with the Denver Broncos. In the most recent three seasons, the Fox coached Broncos were 40-13 SU. Apparently blood is thicker than water, as John Elway hired former teammate Gary Kubiak to lead the Broncs. Fox, in turn, took the job in Chicago, and along with him brought respected DC Vick Fanglio, who most recently guided the 49ers defense to a trio of consecutive NFC Championship games. Respected OC Adam Gase rounds out the triumvirate. There is little doubt that eventually this trio will return the Bears to their winning ways. In the meantime, they are counting on QB Cutler to lead the offense. That is not necessarily a good thing, as the Bears have a 45-71 ATS mark with Cutler as their starter, including 21-36 ATS if installed as underdog. 

Fox brings a solid history of NFL success along with him, including 50-29 SU in Division games. In addition, game 1 Division home revengers have had a solid history of over 67% recently. But the Bears’ fundamentals are far from in place at this point in time. Some may believe that is belied by the 3-1 SA preseason, including a 24-0 shutout in NFL-X game 4. But they are a long way from being competitive with the Packers. 

Green Bay head man McCarthy has a solid history of success since 2006 with the Packers. In the last four seasons, Green Bay is 48-21 SU. It can definitely be argued they should have beaten Seattle in the playoffs last year, and ascended to the Super Bowl. That will leave this team hungry for their opener, with the lone rejoinder being that Seattle revenge looms on the horizon next week. It is unlikely there is much drop off in an offense that averaged 30 PPG and 384 YPG last season. QB Rodgers is one of the best in the game, and returns in full health this year. Even without Jordy Nelson, this will be a potent Green Bay attack. The combination of McCarthy and QB Rodgers has been lethal against Division rivals. McCarthy is 38-18 ATS in Division play; since Aaron Rodgers has joined the Pack, that record is 29-12 ATS vs Division foes. That includes 12-3 SU ATS against the Bears, including 7-1 ATS recently in this series by an average score of 32-18. 

Until HC Fox and Co turns things around for the Bears, can only see more of the same in the first game of the season where each team brings full focus. Make this your NFL Crusher of the Week as history continues.

NFL Pick: Packers -6 (-115) at BetOnline 

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