The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers are fighting it out for top spot on the Super Bowl 50 futures market. The football odds are leaning toward New England.
Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 28: 22-16-1 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-26 Total
Who's going to win the Big Game this year? We've still got five undefeated teams going into Week 8 of the 2015 regular season, but the betting public has already hand-selected two of these five teams: the defending champion New England Patriots (6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS), and the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS). They've separated themselves from the rest of the pack on the NFL odds list for Super Bowl 50.
There's still the question of which team is the favorite. The Patriots are the preferred team at most of the sportsbooks on our list, but they're tied with Green Bay at +250 over at GT Bets. Either way, you're looking at two of the most beloved public teams on the market. Recreational bettors are falling over themselves to put Tom Brady and/or Aaron Rodgers in their NFL picks.
Saved By Zero
Naturally, we'd advise against picking anyone from the top of the odds list. Tying up your money for another three months-plus to get a +250 payout isn't a great way to build your bankroll. And while the Patriots are at the top of both the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders and the SRS charts at Pro-Football Reference, there are plenty of other Super Bowl 50 contenders with strong résumés and higher payouts.
How about some of those other undefeated teams, for instance? The Cincinnati Bengals (6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS) are fourth in DVOA and tied for third in SRS; they're available at around +1000. Or you could get the Carolina Panthers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) at around +1600. Carolina's moving aggressively up the efficiency charts after a pair of solid victories over the Seattle Seahawks (+1200) and the Philadelphia Eagles (+4000).
Look Kids, Big Ben
If you're willing to invest in a team that's already lost a regular-season game – and almost everyone loses at least once before reaching the Promised Land – then you've got a very strong Super Bowl contender in the Arizona Cardinals (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS). Arizona is second overall in both DVOA and SRS through Week 7, and if you shop around, you can get the Cardinals at +1650 on the NFL futures market.
Of course, none of these teams aside from the Patriots and Packers has won the Super Bowl. The Bengals haven't even won a playoff game since 1990. Not that you need Super Bowl experience to win the Big Game, but that's the way the betting public thinks. Otherwise, the Seahawks (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) wouldn't still be so high on the odds list. The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) are also making a run at +1800 despite their middling record – Ben Roethlisberger's return in Week 8 could be the key to Pittsburgh's seventh Super Bowl victory. Shop smart.