Packers Heavy Odds Favorite Over Jets, But Who Will Cover?

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, September 10, 2014 6:26 PM GMT

Despite losing Week 1, the Packers are hefty favorites for this Sunday's home game against the Jets. We've got our NFL odds rundown for this game ready to go, and right now it's looking like Green Bay could be the play.

* * U P D A T E * *

In a somewhat surprising twist, the lines have actually moved down, as the Packers are now available at 7.5 at a lot of the best online sportsbooks, including 5Dimes.

Green Bay ran into a juggernaut in Week 1, getting pummeled by the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. 

Now the Packers get a chance to move to .500 in front of the faithful at Lambeau, with the Jets coming to town off a win in their opener. New York topped Oakland, with the team's defense stepping up most.

For Week 2  NFL picks, though, we believe Green Bay is the better play on the spread, regardless of the high number. The Packers are a much better football team than what they showed on Thursday Night Football last week, and we expect them to prove that to be true this weekend.

New York is a tough-nosed football team, but the Jets don't have the offensive weapons to really keep up with the Packers on their day.

Thus, we feel the value lies with Green Bay in this situation.

NFL Picks: Packers -7.5

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* * O R I G I N A L * *

Though a sportsbook or two out there have a line of 8.5 or even 9, most of the sites have a spread of eight listed on the board. We'd say there's a good chance the NFL odds will continue to move, therefore driving the line up.

If you're wanting to make a total play, right now the number's at 46 at Bookmaker. The Jets put forth a good defensive effort in Week 1, but will they be able to have similar success against a top offense in Green Bay?

Green Bay Packers in 2014-15 regular season: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, -20.0 margin of victory

New York Jets in 2014-15 regular season: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, +5.0 margin of victory

The Packers had a rough go of it in Week 1, but let's remember they had to play the best team in football in arguably the most hostile environment in the NFL. We knew going in it would be a tall task for Green Bay to get a win.

We'll have to see if Aaron Rodgers can get back on track after making some uncharacteristic mistakes against the Seahawks. He threw for only 189 yards and had one touchdown and one interception. Eddie Lacy was knocked out with a concussion, but Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb made impacts, combining for 141 yards and a touchdown.

The Jets were able to get a win in Week 1 at home against the Raiders. Geno Smith was solid in his season debut, completing 23-of-28 passes for 221 yards with one touchdown and one pick. The running game was clicking, as Chris Ivory ran for 102 yards (most of it on one play) and Chris Johnson contributed 68 yards on 13 carries. Eric Decker led all receivers with 74 receiving yards.

The defense rose up and got the job in Week 1, but it's going to take a herculean effort to replicate that against the Packers on the road.

A lot of things go in Green Bay's favor here. For one, the Packers appear to be simply the better all-around football team, in spite of Week 1's showing. There's that. They've got a lot more talent on the offensive side of the ball, and they'll also have the home support behind them.

In addition, Green Bay has had additional time to rest up, recover injury-wise, and prepare a game-plan for this visit of the Jets.

With that in mind, we're really liking the look of a Packers play, regardless of how high this number may rise. We expect Green Bay to run away with this game at Lambeau Field for our NFL picks.