Packers +2 vs. Saints for Sunday Night NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Monday, October 20, 2014 12:41 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 20, 2014 12:41 PM UTC

New Orleans Saints look to bounce back when they host the hot Green Bay Packers in Week 8 NFL betting. Early NFL betting odds have the Saints as the 2-point chalk. Are the bookies overrating the Saints at the expense of the Packers in NFL betting markets? Find out as we preview this clash and serve up our NFL betting verdict and picks.

Green Bay Packers Win Four in Row
Green Bay Packers are flush off a 38-17 home win over the Carolina Panthers, coming through for NFL bettors as the -290 home favourites and the 7-point chalk. The win marked the Packers’ fourth straight win and third win in which they hung up more than 30-points on the scoreboard.

By the numbers, Green Bay offense ranks rather poorly, in the mid 20s on the offensive charts for passing and rushing. But that’s all relative when one considers their efficiency. Despite their subjective stats, they’ve managed to win five of their last seven games behind efficient play on offense, some of which is down to defense repeatedly providing Aaron Rodgers short field advantage. The fact is that in their last four games they scored a whopping 145 points, for an average rate of 36.25 points per game. Defense has allowed 68 points in the last four games, which is an average of 17 points per game.

Saints Can Only Win At Home
Saints are woeful on the road this season having lost all four of their outings, including week 7’s date with the Detroit Lions 24-23. At home the Saints continue to win, but even those wins leave something to be desired. They barely beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-9 in week 3 NFL betting. Against Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they were forced to come-from-behind to win 37-31 in overtime.

By the numbers, the Saints offense stands attractively amongst the top offenses in the league in both passing and rushing. All the good it does seeing as they can’t seem to buy wins no matter how hard they try. If they have one thing going for them in this game, it is home field advantage. But that might be a moot point when the Packers come calling in Sunday Night's highly anticipated Primetime football clash.

Green Bay Packers +2.0 vs. New Orleans Saints -2.0/ Over-Under 54.5
At first glance, these NFL betting odds would appear to make all the sense in the world. New Orleans have a solid record at home that goes back several seasons and an ATS mark that stands at 12-6 since 2012. They’ve also rewarded their backers eleven times in their last 16 home games with an 11-5 ATS record underscored by a 13.1 average margin of victory.

But when so much is about perception than reality at online sportsbooks, NFL bettors need to be wary. Fact is the Saints are enjoying a forgettable season behind a 2-4 SU mark, which includes a 2-0 SU record at home and a 0-4 record on the road. In week 7 NFL betting, they fritted away a 13-point lead over the Lions to lose 24-23 on the road. Of course, they Saints aren’t out of it just yet, but it’s certainly time to hit the panic button. They simply can’t afford to lose many more (if any) games if they want to keep post-season hopes alive.

What that amounts to in a word: pressure. The burden of expectation is huge now. It remains to be seen whether the Saints can answer the question in week 8 NFL betting when Packers come calling. Because they’ve been able to do so in the past and their home record speaks volumes, they enter this clash as the nominal 2-point chalk. Problem is we’re not so sure they deserve to be the favourites at the expense of the Green Bay Packers, who are riding the momentum of four straight wins and have outscored the opposition 199-to-147 for a 54-point differential. If anything, the way the NFL betting market currently stands, the Packers would seem to be the value NFL pick as the 2-point underdogs. They have the momentum, the confidence and the clutch quarterback. What’s more, their defense is much better than the Saints’ defense, which could prove deciding against Drew Brees and his top-ten offense.

Finally, our bold value NFL pick is in the total betting market, which is set to a high of 54.5-points. If both quarterbacks live up to their credentials, this could very well be the high-octane shootout odds makers are predicting. So take the Over 54.5-points on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Packers + 2.0 -110

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