Overreactions Shift Super Bowl 50 Betting Futures Heading Into Week 2

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, September 17, 2015 1:21 AM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 17, 2015 1:21 AM GMT

Our NFL handicapper has some thoughts about futures bets for your NFL picks and he wrote them down for our viewing pleasure.

Man, those gold midfield numbers looked great! This week I’d thought I’d jot my thoughts down before going down to the hotel bar, because it turns out wasted girls don’t know jack about Week 1 of the NFL. Even though you are better off riding a long shot playoff team on the money line, I know some of you can’t resist 50 to 1 NFL odds on your team!

And since we are in lovely Stockton, CA this evening, let’s make like a gangster and bullet:

All lines listed are from Bovada 

 

- The Packers are at 5/1 this week after taking down the Bears at Soldier Field. This is still not a good bet. You are better off riding them on the money line every game in the playoffs. Wait until they make it there. 

- The Patriots are listed at 6/1 after proving that Tom Brady can still play football with properly inflated balls.

- The Seahawks are listed at 7.5/1 this week after doing what they usually do in St. Louis. Crap the bed. Stay away from this team until the O-line puts together a good game.

- As is the nature of the NFC East, two teams are grossly overvalued at 12/1 and 14/1 to win Super Bowl 50, respectively. The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys still have their flaws.

- The Indianapolis Colts just got their asses handed to them and are still listed at 12/1. They better hope they don’t meet a team with a good defense on the road in the playoffs. If they make it there.

- Do the Denver Broncos at 14/1 and Baltimore Ravens at 25/1 look like teams that are worth laying money on now, in September? Can you realistically put money on Denver right now to win the AFC West?

- So if the Denver Broncos aren’t a good bet, the Chiefs would be the next logical choice to come out of the AFC West. At 25/1 they actually provide some value here after demolishing the Texans in Week 1. Or you could just take them to beat the Broncos in Week 2.

- Also at 25/1 are the Arizona Cardinals, who might have the best defensive secondary in the league right now since the Seahawks have decided to give that crown up for the time being. I doubt the keep Carson Palmer upright for the rest of the season, unfortunately.

- The Bills demolish the Colts, who are at 12/1, and still find themselves at 25/1. Defense wins championships and all that, and if you can make a QB like Andrew Luck look ordinary you are on to something. If the Bucks can beat Brady and the Patriots they won’t be at 25/1 at Week 3.

- The Falcons could easily be the team that beats up the NFC South and gets a home playoff game. This makes their 28/1 odds to win the Super Bowl partially intriguing. It’s the most interesting pick on the board, in my opinion.

 

I’d love to go on further, but I don’t think the Cincinnati Bengals or San Diego Chargers are worth a futures bet, even though they looked impressive in Week 1. If you are going to back a likely wild card team you are better pressing the money line throughout their playoff run. That is, if they get there. Good luck, and remember the best futures bet is the one on your home team. Nothing is better than “I told you so”… well, except for some extra cash to go along with it.

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