NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 7: Keep it Low and Simple
Week 6 featured some surprising Under results in the NFL, including games with high-powered offenses that still couldn’t reach the plateau. Here are our top Over/Under picks for NFL Week 7.
Hammering the Under seems to be the flavor of the 2022 NFL season at this point. In fact, if someone had bet $100 on the Under in every single game so far, they would be up $1,500. Only five teams have hit the Over at a higher rate than the Under through six weeks, with some surprises such as the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills eclipsing their totals only once each.
Perhaps this slate will be different, as two of the five teams who are hitting the Over with regularity are back from their bye week – the Detroit Lions and Las Vegas Raiders. Will their re-additions to the Week 7 schedule propel scoring a bit higher?
Check out NFL Week 7 against-the-spread power rankings, and our odds and lines analysis.
Here are our top Over/Under picks of NFL Week 7 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook).
NFL Week 7 Over/Under Picks
- Lions-Cowboys Under 49 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Texans-Raiders Under 45.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
- Chiefs-49ers Under 48.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Lions vs. Cowboys Over/Under Pick
Under 49 (-110)
It’s been hard to find dull moments in the Lions’ season, as they’ve predominantly scored in bunches (28.0 points per game) while also yielding a league-worst 34.0 PPG to their opponents. Perhaps that’s why an already high line moved up from its initial total of 47.5 to 49 (as of Wednesday afternoon).
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboys have done well in keeping their opponents’ offense at bay. Only the Bills and San Francisco 49ers have allowed fewer points per game, however, the Cowboys are also scoring just 18.3 PPG. Dallas's defensive ability, combined with its lack of offense, should keep the score on the lower end. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to return from injury, but it would be surprising if he were sharp considering the length of his layoff.
Texans vs. Raiders Over/Under Pick
Under 45.5 (-108)
Two bye week teams return to action against one another Sunday evening, although this matchup doesn’t exactly present as a thriller. Both squads have just a single win this season, with the Houston Texans near the bottom of the league in yards per game and points per game.
Fortunately, Houston can at least feel somewhat good about how surprisingly solid the defense has fared. The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t had trouble scoring, but they defend well on the ground which is bad news for Houston – who would love to deploy star rookie running back Dameon Pierce. There are a lot of roadblocks leading to this game’s chances of hitting the Over, although the oddsmakers seem to disagree as the total has risen 3.5 points from the opening line.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under Pick
Under 48.5 (-110)
An argument can certainly be made for the Over given the potency of the Kansas City Chiefs offense, but it’s also hard to imagine a total this high being eclipsed in a game featuring a strong San Francisco 49ers defense. The market initially opened at 47.5 before growing a single point to its current total of 48.5 (as of Wednesday afternoon) but either way, both seem too high.
The 49ers surrendered 28 points to the Atlanta Falcons last week, but they had also held opponents to 15 or fewer points in four of their five games prior to that. Additionally, San Francisco has averaged just 20.3 points per game. A lot of things would have to align for this game to result in a total of 49-plus points, and wagering on the Over doesn’t seem worth the risk at pick‘em odds.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 7 Over/Under Picks
NFL Week 7 Over/Under picks made 10/19/2022 at 3:54 p.m. ET.
