Best Over/Under Bets of NFL Week 6: Chasing Good Offense and Bad Defense
Taking the Under was the slightly more profitable outcome in Week 5, with nine games falling short of their projected point total while the other seven hit. Here are our top NFL Week 6 Over/Under bets.
Week 5 saw some high-scoring games and lopsided defeats, with some likely Over bets failing to cash thanks to one team's ineptitude. For example, the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers game had an Over/Under total of 44.5, however that total wasn’t surpassed despite the 38 points the Bills scored alone.
Similarly, the New England Patriots-Detroit Lions matchup didn’t eclipse the 47-point projected total as the Lions failed to get a single point. Will certain teams fare better at pulling their own weight in Week 6?
Here are our top Over/Under NFL Week 6 bets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook).
NFL Week 6 Over/Under Picks
- Panthers-Rams: Under 41 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Cardinals-Seahawks: Over 50.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Bills-Chiefs: Over 54 (-110 via Caesars)
Panthers vs. Rams Over/Under Pick
Under 41 (-110)
This market opened slightly higher at 42 before dropping to its current total of 40.5, as of Wednesday afternoon. The small dip makes sense given the news out of Carolina, with head coach Matt Rhule canned after a 1-4 start. To make things worse, the Panthers will roll out their third-string quarterback due to injuries – aka an undrafted 27-year-old with two career starts.
Carolina was already a bottom-ten team in points-per-game before these transactions, and their scoring ability will likely be worse this week. Los Angeles hasn’t exactly had a season to write home about either, averaging just 16 PPG through five games (the NFL's fourth worst). Porous O-lines and poor QB play should keep this one low-scoring.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Over/Under Pick
Over 50.5 (-110)
The Over/Under total for this matchup has been incrementally rising since the initial line was set at 47, soaring all the way up to 50.5 where it currently stands as of Wednesday afternoon. The increase isn’t surprising as both the Cardinals (24.6 opponent PPG) and the Seahawks (30.8 opponent PPG) have surrendered plenty of points this season.
Each of these squads head into this one with key running back injuries. Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny is done for the season and while Cardinals backs James Conner and Darrel Williams' injuries aren’t as serious, it’s likely neither suits up for this contest.
Replacement RBs Kenneth Walker III (Seattle) and Eno Benjamin (Arizona) are more-than-capable of rushing and converting, so the total number of points scored shouldn’t suffer. This game looks to have all the makings of a shootout.
Bills vs. Chiefs Over/Under Pick
Over 54 (-110)
This total is higher than most, but for good reason as many view the Bills and Chiefs as the AFC's top two teams. Taking the Over may seem a bit risky as Buffalo is tied for first in the league in opponent PPG with 12.2, however Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is usually matchup proof and will not be phased by this statistic.
Kansas City is the highest scoring team this season (31.8 PPG) and Buffalo isn’t far behind (30.4 PPG). The Chiefs aren’t nearly as good defensively, averaging 25 opponent PPG, meaning the Bills should be able to feast. These are also the two best NFL teams in third-down conversion percentages, and they’re the only two opponents doing so at a rate above 50%. The Over may be high, but it’s very likely to cash given all available weapons.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 6 Over/Under Picks
NFL Week 6 Over/Under picks made 10/12/2022 at 2:12 p.m. ET
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