'Over' Total is Primary Pick in Eagles-Patriots Super Bowl LII

David Schwab

Monday, January 29, 2018 3:21 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 29, 2018 3:21 PM UTC

The NFC champion Eagles will try and pull-off a three-game postseason sweep as underdogs in Sunday’s Super Bowl LII against the AFC champion Patriots, who are gunning for their second straight NFL title. Kickoff from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis is 6:30 p.m. (ET) on NBC.


Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England PatriotsFree NFL Pick: Over 48.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Eagles closed as favorites in 10 of their first 13 regular season games, including all six played at home. Week 14 marked an important road win against the Los Angeles Rams as 1-point favorites, but it also marked the end of quarterback Carson Wentz’s season with a torn ACL. Even though Philadelphia was the top seed in the NFC at 13-3 (10-6 against the spread), it closed as a home underdog in playoff victories against Atlanta and Minnesota.

Nick Foles replaced Wentz in the starting lineup and has already proven that the postseason stage is not too big for this six-year veteran out of Arizona. He will now step onto the biggest stage the NFL has to offer to try and lead the Eagles to their first Super Bowl title in three tries. The surrounding cast on this team features a tandem of running backs on the third-best rushing offense in the league and a defense that was fourth in the NFL in both yards (306.5) and points allowed (18.4). Philly’s total 38-7 dominance of the Vikings in the NFC title game hammered home this point.

Been there, done that could be the feeling in Boston this week as the Patriots try and bring home their sixth title with Bill Belichick as head coach and Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. There is no doubt that New England knows how to win games on football’s biggest stage, but that does not stop it from keeping things interesting from time to time. The Patriots failed to cover against Jacksonville in the AFC title game in a 24-20 come-from-behind win as 8-point favorites at home according to major sportsbooks such at BetOnline.

Brady lit up the Jaguars’ vaunted defense for 290 yards passing and two touchdown throws even with his top target, Rob Gronkowski, out of the lineup with a concussion. Gronk’s playing status for this Sunday remains questionable, but nobody expects the NFL’s top tight end to miss this game. The Patriots were the top seed in their conference at 13-3 SU, and they were a cover machine down the stretch at 10-2 ATS in their last 12 regular-season games.

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It's @SuperBowl Week! #SBLII#FlyEaglesFly #GoPats pic.twitter.com/xKpiW82OVi

— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2018

Game Betting Trends
  • The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a SU winning record, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games coming off a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 15 postseason games.
  • The Patriots have a 16-5 record ATS in their last 21 games against a SU winning team and they have covered in four of their last five postseason games. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 10 games in the playoffs.
  • Head-to-head in this inter-conference matchup, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.
Super Bowl LII Pick

The Eagles have flourished in the roll of underdog throughout the playoffs, and they have enough talent on the field to keep this game competitive right through the final gun. While my SU lean is towards New England, the Patriots are going to have to score some points to get the job done. This should work to push the total OVER 48.5 as my top NFL pick for Super Bowl LII.

Check Out SBR's Page Full Of Super Bowl LII Props
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