Opening Odds Report for Thursday Night's Jets vs. Patriots

Jason Lake

Monday, October 13, 2014 6:01 PM GMT

The New York Jets had the money in the bag last week. Then they gave the bag to the Denver Broncos. Will they do it again this week, facing the same NFL odds against the revitalized New England Patriots?

Jason’s Record After Week 5: 19-16 ATS, 5-7-1 Totals

Profit: plus-0.1 units

 

If people didn’t hate Geno Smith before, they sure do now. The New York Jets (1-5 SU, 0-5-1 ATS) got their rudders handed to them Sunday by the Denver Broncos, but the Jets still had the NFL odds covered as 10-point home dogs at 5Dimes – until Smith threw a pick-six to Aqib Talib with 15 seconds on the clock. Final score: Denver 31, New York 17.

That’s going to be a tough loss for the books to absorb. It didn’t do much for our NFL picks, either. But now we face a similar situation for Week 7; the Jets face another public darling in the New England Patriots, and once again, they’re getting as many as 10 points after opening at +7.5 (+105) at . Our consensus reports show New England receiving two-thirds support at the open before things evened out Monday morning.

 

Regicide
The situation may be familiar, but there are several notable differences with this matchup that must be addressed. First and foremost, they’ll be playing in Foxborough, while the last Jets game was at home in Jersey. Second, they’ll be playing on Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS), which cuts severely into everyone’s preparation time. That should be more problematic for the Jets. They’ve got issues that need solving ASAP.

As much as the smarter New York fans would like to see the team focus on beating their AFC East rivals, the spotlight is on head coach Rex Ryan. He’s expected to lose his job before too long, maybe even by the time you read this – although the short week will make that difficult for the front office to pull off. Either way, Ryan is considered a lame-duck coach at this point.

 

Cheap Labor
It’s too bad. Ryan has done a good job with the talent he’s been given, leading the Jets to the AFC title game in 2009 and 2010 with Mark Sanchez at quarterback. But defense and running can only take you so far. Sanchez melted down in 2012-13, partly from injuries and pressure from the media, but also because the talent around him was stripped away as the team cut payroll:

2012: $121.4 million ($51.7M offense, $68.1M defense, $1.6M special teams)
2013: $98.5 million ($55.5M offense, $41.4M defense, $1.7M special teams)

We’ll see where the 2014 numbers land, but for now, the Jets have used up an estimated $110.3 million of their cap space, easily the lowest in the league. We don’t often talk about these things when we’re betting on the NFL; the salary cap and salary floor are supposed to keep teams relatively in line when it comes to spending. Still, the cost-cutting measures in New York (Darrelle Revis says hi) have helped put this team in its current position, and Ryan is going to be the one who pays for it with his job.

 

No Mayo
As for the Patriots (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), it’s time to give the devils their due. For the second straight week, they looked more like the Pats of old, beating the Buffalo Bills 37-22 as 1-point road dogs. The game was closer than the score might indicate – Buffalo made costly mistakes at inopportune times, racking up over 100 yards in penalties and losing both its fumbles. But the big takeaway is that New England is enjoying renewed success with its two-tight end formations. Rob Gronkowski caught seven passes for 94 yards while Tim Wright made it back-to-back weeks with a touchdown.

The Patriots didn’t escape Ralph Wilson Stadium unscathed, though. LB Jerod Mayo (knee), RB Steven Ridley (knee) and LG Dan Connolly (concussion) all left the game, and Mayo in particular could be looking at an extended layoff. We’ll have more on this situation, along with our NFL picks, as we get closer to kick-off.

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