Opening Odds Analysis for Monday Night's Colts vs. Giants

Jason Lake

Monday, October 27, 2014 12:51 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 12:51 PM UTC

The Indianapolis Colts couldn’t beat the NFL odds Sunday afternoon. Now they have to regroup in time for Monday Night Football, where they’ll face a New York Giants team that was idle in Week 8. 

Jason’s Record After Week 7: 22-29 ATS, 7-11-1 Totals

Profit: minus-29.68 units


The Indianapolis Colts finally dug themselves a hole that was too deep even for them to climb out of. On Sunday, Indianapolis went to the Mustard Bowl as a 4-point favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who took a 35-10 lead late in the second quarter. The Colts closed to within 42-34 going into the fourth quarter, but they ran out of gas and lost 51-34. Ben Roethlisberger finished the day with six touchdown throws and 522 yards passing for Pittsburgh.

Here’s some good news for the Colts: They have an extra day to get ready for their next game. And now the bad news: The team that they’re playing Monday night, the New York Giants, is coming off a bye week. Will that be enough reason to add the Giants to your Week 9 NFL picks? They opened as 3-point home faves (+105) on the NFL odds board before the agate type was dry on the Colts-Steelers game.


Butt Safety
There aren’t too many takeaways from Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh – other than the two interceptions Andrew Luck handed the Steelers, including a pick-six for William Gay. Luck also picked the wrong time and the wrong place to fall on his keister: early in the fourth quarter, on his own goal line. Luck threw the ball away and was called for intentional grounding, giving Pittsburgh a safety and squashing Indy’s momentum. Just one of those days.

The Colts (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) also lost a couple of defenders during the game. RC Vontae Davis (knee) and OLB Erik Walden (hip) left the field and did not return; their status for Monday’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) was uncertain as we went to press. Davis is particularly valuable to the Colts. He was a late first-round pick for Miami in 2009, and has been playing at a very high level this year. At least Davis will have one more day to get healthy.


Formidable Opponent
So what do we make of the Giants (3-4 SU and ATS) at this point? They lost their first two games SU and ATS and looked quite awful in doing so. Then the Giants rattled off three straight wins SU and ATS, and it seemed like they were well on their way – until they honked their next two games, again SU and ATS, both against NFC East rivals. Who are the real New York Giants?

All of the above. The three wins inside that Giant sandwich were against teams who were in the bottom half of the Football Outsiders DVOA table going into Week 8: Houston (+1 away), Washington (–3 at home) and Atlanta (+4 away). The four losses were against teams who were in the top half of the DVOA table: Detroit (–6.5 at home), Arizona (+1 away), Philadelphia (–1 at home) and Dallas (–4.5 at home).

The Colts certainly belong in that second group; they were No. 5 on the DVOA charts (No. 8 offense, No. 9 defense, No. 4 special teams) after seven games. And the Giants, as you might expect, were somewhere in the middle at No. 22 overall (No. 19 offense, No. 18 defense, No. 23 special teams). New York also has a minus-0.5 SRS over at Pro Football Reference, while Indianapolis is likely to drop down from plus-13.1 SRS after Sunday’s result. If you were to use these numbers to make a rough point spread, though, you’d end up with the Colts favored by about 11 points at the New Meadowlands. Something to keep in mind while we wait for further injury news and prepare our NFL pick against the spread and total.

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