Top NFL Week 11 Opening Lines and Picks

This article is for week 11 – please see our updated week 12 NFL odds, opening lines and picks here.

Profits continue to roll in and Week 11 of the regular season brings more enticing NFL opening lines. Outside of Week 9's strange outcomes, we've cleared each week with a winning margin.

One thing we continue to learn in the NFL is that change is consistent. Week 11 offers a fresh opportunity to continue rolling profits.

Here's a look at my top four picks centered around early NFL odds (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Patriots vs. Falcons Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Thursday, November 18, 8:20 p.m. ETTV: FOX, NFL NetworkLocation: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Opening Line: Patriots -6

I don't want to overreact to last week's blowouts that resulted in a win for the New England Patriots and a loss for the Atlanta Falcons. I would take New England and the points regardless of last week's outcomes because these teams aren't built the same. New England is a team stocked full of veterans riding a four-game win streak, whereas the Falcons were exposed for their youth and limitations.

This spread has already grown 2.5 points on the NFL opening lines, so don't hesitate any longer if you're taking the Patriots. Atlanta's struggled with lesser teams all year and has lost to every decent foe aside from the injury-riddled New Orleans Saints in Week 9. New England, as well-coached as any team, will roll.

PICK: Patriots -6 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: All NFL Picks

Saints at Eagles Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5

The value of a quarterback cannot be understated. The New Orleans Saints are currently a neutered version of themselves with backup Trevor Siemian at the controls and they deserve criticism for not exploring either Cam Newton or Philip Rivers as stopgaps for the rest of 2021. Their offense is far too limited with their current starter.

While it's time to sell New Orleans, Philadelphia is now a buy candidate. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense have remembered they're allowed to run the ball, and the unit has been performing admirably over the last three weeks. New Orleans will slow them but not enough to avoid a cover.

PICK: Eagles -1.5 (-110) ???

Bengals at Raiders Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 4:05 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Opening Line: Bengals -1

Is this a game of two fallen AFC pretenders or one that will serve as the catapult for one of these teams to make a playoff push? Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Las Vegas Raiders have flawed defensive rosters and have suffered embarrassing losses in back-to-back contests. Barring another tie on the season, one will emerge with a 6-4 record and have a decent shot at controlling their own destiny.

Cincinnati has a better overall identity, roster, and defense. I expect a shootout, so buckle in as both Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Raiders passer Derek Carr can light up the opposing defense. But I expect the Bengals to prevail in the end by a field goal thanks to the immense playmaking talents that surround Burrow.

PICK: Bengals -1 (-105) ???

Packers at Vikings Opening Line and Pick

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Opening Line: Packers -2.5

This is one of the NFL opening lines that will move quickly. The Minnesota Vikings did well against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, successfully baiting Justin Herbert into short throws. This team is mediocre though and a sharper game plan can exploit its back-end weaknesses more effectively.

Green Bay has been that thorn in their side. In their last three battles, Green Bay has won twice by an average of five points. The Packers are beat up on defense but they'll handle the Vikings and crush their rivals' playoff dreams.

PICK: Packers -2.5 (-120) ????

NFL Opening Lines picks made 11/15/2021 at 6:57 p.m. ET