Offensive Minded Matchup Makes the 'Over' Our Super Bowl Pick

Jeff Grant

Monday, January 26, 2015 6:22 PM GMT

New England and Seattle are capable of running up-tempo offenses with their experienced signal-callers, which provides betting value for the ‘Over’ in Super Bowl XLIX.

Early Strike
New England enjoyed a tremendous 261-166 scoring edge in the first half during the regular season, which is important to consider when making your NFL picks, as veteran quarterback Tom Brady prepares for his record-breaking sixth Super Bowl start.

The Patriots and Seahawks combined for 17 points in the opening 15 minutes in their most recent meeting on Oct. 14, 2012, with the two teams combining for 845 total yards offensively.

It’s important to point out that these two participants managed to average just 9.6 combined points in the first quarter, but that could change due to Brady and Russell Wilson being experienced in this situation.

Sports bettors will find that there’s been 2,212 total points scored in Super Bowls for an average of 46.1 points per game—virtually the same number available in the marketplace heading into the final six days of wagering.

 

Calming Influence
Seattle is making back-to-back Super Bowl appearances due to its talented roster on both sides of the ball, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NFL betting odds, but Wilson is still the main player to watch at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The former NC State and Wisconsin star ranks in the top five in terms of postseason passer rating in just his third year as a professional—completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 1,573 yards and 10 touchdowns with five interceptions.

Over the last two-plus seasons with its star under center, the franchise has gone 3-1 SUATS versus AFC East opponents, with the OVER cashing in three of those four opportunities.

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Tom Terrific
The Patriots need Brady to be the best player on the field Sunday, which is certainly a possibility due to being the all-time Super Bowl leader with 127 completions and 1,277 passing yards on the World’s biggest stage.

The future Hall of Fame quarterback completed 36 of 58 pass attempts for 395 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions in a 24-23 loss to Seattle as 3.5-point road favorites on Oct. 14, 2012.

Why is the amount of pass attempts important in the last meeting between these two teams?  It represented a career high at the time due to New England running a no-huddle attack for most of the game.

Check Jeff's updated look at odds for Super Bowl Point Spread.

Big Plays
Surprisingly enough, the Seahawks average five more yards than the Patriots offensively, with much of the credit coming in the category of explosive plays.

Seattle led the league with 135 combined plays of 16-plus yards through the air and 12-plus yards on the ground during the regular season, while also sitting atop that statistical category with 22 such plays during the playoffs.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the ‘Over’ as one of their top Super Bowl Sunday picks, as the Patriots have gone above the number in 15 of their last 18 games versus teams that average 350 or more yards per game the last three seasons.

NFL Super Bowl Pick: Over 47.5 at 5Dimes