Odell Beckham Jr. has not slowed down in his first two years, and he is once again set for a big season. Is there value in betting either side of his offseason future odds?
Giants’ Offensive Heavily Reliant On Beckham
The biggest issue or advantage Beckham has in this prop is the Giants’ offense. Their running game did not get upgraded in the offseason leaving them with a similarly one-sided offense like they have last season. Even if the New York Giants (+2900 at Bookmaker to win Super Bowl LI) gets more out of Shane Vereen or Rashad Jennings than they got in 2015, New York’s running game is going to be serviceable at best.
Victor Cruz is once again trying to make his way back from injury and there are no guarantees that he is going to be healthy, effective or even on the team by the time the season starts. If he is, he and Larry Donnell are both going to take targets away and relieve some of the pressure off of Beckham. This two kind of cancel each other out, but with no guarantees for Cruz, it looks as if Beckham is easily going to see another 150 targets.
Last season Cruz averaged over nine yards per target, which is a pretty insane numbers. Ben McAdoo has been elevated to head coach, which means the team might just ignore the run game altogether. This is also good for the over on this one.
However, the biggest difference between now and last season with the G-Men is their defense. They spent the offseason ramping up their defense and spending money on both the pass rush and the secondary. This is going to once again be a double-edged sword. On one hand, they should get more takeaways, where the Giants have already been really good. However, the improved defense should, in theory, allow the Giants to keep leads, which might limit the number of times they throw the ball.
Eli Manning threw the ball 618 times in 2015, ranking fourth in attempts behind only Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers. Two of those quarterbacks were behind in games all the time, and while Manning and the Giants finished 6-10 last season, they should win a few more games this season.
At 1450.5 yards, Beckham is second to only Antonio Brown in highest receiving yards totals offered from Bet365. However, with Cruz being no guarantee for the Giants, Beckham is going to once again see a ton of targets. Brown-level of targets might even be in the cards for Beckham entering his third year in the league.
If you look at the top target-getters in the league from last season, Beckham ranked seventh at 159, but he finished fifth in the league in receiving yards at 1450. He also did it with less than 100 catches.
Beckham easily had better yards per catch and yards per target numbers that the other top pass catchers last year, so all it will take this season is for Eli Manning to send a few more targets per game over to Beckham. If he keeps getting 15.1 yards per catch and 9.1 yards per target, all it will take is another 160 targets for an over cashing ticket from Beckham.
Free NFL Pick: OVER 1450.5 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at Bet365