Odds, Preview and NFL Pick for Week 12: Dolphins vs. Broncos

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 3:52 PM GMT

Denver was served a healthy slice of humble pie in St. Louis and now the Broncos are Home hosting the Dolphins for week 12. With Miami so improved defensively, the Under is NFL pick here.

Odds Overview
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (Broncos -7, 49, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). The AFC champion Denver Broncos (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) welcome the impressive Miami Dolphins (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) to Sports Authority Field in Denver, Colorado for this interdivisional AFC meeting in what may end up being a very entertaining game and one fairly important for both teams as the regular season starts to come to an end.

Oddsmakers have made Denver touchdown (7-point) Favorites over the Dolphins here at Home, but just a week ago, NFL odds had the Broncos at -9½ on the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s Advanced Line. So, the way Miami looked the last time it played combined with how inept Denver looked last week has moved the line to where the number sits now out of respect to the way the visiting Dolphins have been playing. The Total Points here is 49 almost everywhere with the Money Line (Winner) market pricing Denver at -310 and Miami at +273 at Pinnacle. The Dolphins Total Team Points is set at 21 (Stan James) while the host Broncos Total Team Points is at 28½ (Skybet).

 

Miami Dolphins
Miami (4-1 SU L5) will come into this game well rested and confident, having last played last Thursday night when it defeated the Bills, 22-7 at Home in Miami Gardens. Statistically, the Dolphins head into this Week 12 ranked #22 in Passing and #6 in Rushing and an impressive #2 against the Pass and #8 against the Rush. So, shoutout to Miami Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Because of that staunch defense, Miami has seen 5 of its L6 Road games go Under the posted Total, while in the last 6 meetings with the Broncos, the Under is 4-2. And with The Cold having arrived in North America, 49s won’t be as easy to get over with brittle fingers, cold air in the pigskin and field goal attempts moving sideways because of strong winds.

QB Ryan Tannehill (231 completions, 2,354 yards, 17 TDs) is a big reason The Fish are starting to feel like a winning football team again and although the former Florida State star (16-11 ATS vs. Non-Division) could probably use some more weapons on offense, RB Lamar Miller (614 yards, 5 TDs) and WR Mike Wallace (614 yards, 5 TDs) are a start. But can this team from the warmest climate in the USA fly 1,709 miles out west to the Rocky Mountains and score points in the cold? The Dolphins theory is that they probably won’t have to try to outscore Peyton Manning and the Broncos if they can hold them in check defensively. And you can bet your bottom dollar that Miami head coach Joe Philbin (17-15 ATS) and DC Coyle will be going over the game film from the Rams-Broncos game last weekend with a fine-toothed comb to see exactly how St. Louis silenced one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.

Miami Gs Billy Turner (foot) and Daryn Colledge (back) and CB Cortland Finnegan (neck) are all listed as Questionable for this game in which Denver will head in to much more banged up than will Miami.

 

Denver Broncos
Embarrassed and beat up by the Rams in St. Louis last Sunday, the Broncos and QB Manning (273 completions, 3,301 yards, 30 TDs) need to quickly snap out of it, but with some key players now injured, the defending AFC champions seem much more vulnerable this week than they did at the same time last week. An ankle injury to TE Julius Thomas (40 receptions, 426 yards, 12 TDs) has him listed as Questionable for this game, the same status applied to crucial WR Emmanuel Sanders (67 receptions, 954 yards, 7 TDs/14.2 ypc), who suffered a concussion the third quarter in the humbling in St. Louis. Toss in the fact that RB Montee Ball (groin) will be until early December and RB Ronnie Hillman (91 rushes, 378 yards, 3 TDs) being Out Indefinitely with a foot injury, and Manning’s (12-6-1 ATS vs. Non-Division) options of really healthy quality targets will certainly be limited in this game, something probably good for the Under. But Denver’s offense is predicated around throwing the ball so expect a lot of WR Demaryius Thomas (72 receptions, 1,105 yards, 6 TDs, 15.3 ypc), Wes Welker, Andre Caldwell, Cody Latimer, Jacob Tamme and CJ Anderson and possibly as “conservative” of an offense as you’ll see from this Broncos team.

Denver is 11-4 SU over its L15 and 5-0 in its L5 here in the Mile High City. But the recent trends are pretty cruel if you’re thinking of backing the Broncos.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
The Dolphins are an impressive 6-1 ATS L7 vs. the Broncos and Miami is 4-0 ATS L4 here in Denver, but it’s very important to note that all of those numbers happened when future Hall of Famer Manning was still plying his wares in Indianapolis with the Colts. But still, it’s hard to ignore trends like that along with the Broncos 2-5 SU mark against the Dolphins. So, although the Broncos will be very mad after the Rams embarrassment, at Home and in a position where they need the win both to keep hopes of winning the AFC West and securing homefield advantage in the AFC alive (the Patriots are 8-2) and the 7 points seems more than fair to lay, the reality of the trends and the Dolphins defense means it’s probably best to toss out the idea of taking a side with such conflicting feelings and expectations from the hosts (Art) and the data showing that Miami beats and covers against Denver (Science). But again, those trends were pre-Manning.

As far as the Total goes and trends, the Over 5-1 is in the L6 Denver games here at Home and the Broncos had played 6 straight Overs until Sunday’s 22-7 Under at the Rams (6-1 Over L7). But the Under is 4-2 in the L6 meetings in this series, 5-1 in the Dolphins L6 games on the Road and Miami’s L5 games have all gone Under the Total.

As mentioned above, the thought here is that Denver plays it close to the vest and Miami really needs the win so as to not fall to 6-5 SU. And with the Dolphins much-improved and underrated defense, the Broncos having injury issues and the mercury dropping, this one shouldn’t be as high-scoring as one would have thought before the season started, yet the number in this NFL pick is still near 50 because of the Broncos offense, image and penchant for “The Pass,” which might suffer with Julius Thomas and Sanders hurt and Miami #2 against both the Pass (208.0 ypg) and in Total Yards allowed (302.5 ypg). This one will be interesting.

Free NFL Pick: Under 49 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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