Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends for Football Weekend

Doug Upstone

Saturday, January 10, 2015 12:26 PM GMT

Check out this weekend biggest line moves and profitable trends you should consider against the NFL odds.

In each game capsule, we will provide what the public is betting on and how much the line moved, possible reasons as to why and offer our opinion on what the outcome could be.

We welcome your feedback and comments and hope you enjoy. Let’s get started!

 

NFL – Baltimore vs. New England 4:25 ET  NBC
The total on first game of the divisional round of the playoffs has sunk from 49 to 47.5 on the NFL odds. There is reason to believe this the right direction since off the last six games played between these combatants in New England; four have gone under the total including the last three. Logic would dictate bettors are indicating Baltimore would control the scoring tempo, leading to lower scoring, as compared to the Patriots wanting to score fast and play at a quicker pace. The Ravens have been problematic to New England and are 12-3 UNDER after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. However, the Brady bunch is 6-0 OVER at home versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game the last two seasons. Update – As of late Friday afternoon, about half the sportsbooks checked had upped the total to 48 and just under of the 70 percent of betting tickets were on the OVER.  

NFL Pick: Lean Over

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NFL – Carolina vs. Seattle  8:15 ET  FOX
Have to completely agree with football bettors lowering the total from 40.5 to 39.5 in this NFC showdown. Congrats to Carolina for making a great run to get this point with five consecutive victories, but this is where the fun stops. When looking at the Panthers offense, other than potentially the read option with Cam Newton running, what can’t Seattle stop with the rest of their offense? Newton’s mechanics as a passer are off and the Seahawks secondary is better than Carolina’s receivers, thus, hard to imagine many points by the ‘Cats. Conversely, Ron Rivera’s defense is really playing well and let’s not lose sight of the fact Seattle is far from explosive and has scored more than 24 points once since Nov.10th. Both teams prefer to run the ball which takes time off the clock and Carolina is 12-3 UNDER after a dominating performance in which they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24 or more first downs. Only way this game goes Over is turnovers based on field position that leads to quick scores. Update – A few books have moved the betting odds total back to 40, but the large majority are still satisfied at 39.5. At last look, 65 percent were betting the UNDER. 

NFL Pick: Play Under

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NFL – Dallas vs. Green Bay 1:05 ET  FOX  
Word has leaked out that not only does Aaron Rodgers have a strained calf but a “slight tear” which could limit his mobility.  "There's no question he will play, but there's also no question he will not be 100 percent," said one doctor familiar with the injury. "The question is whether he'll be 95 percent or 50 percent." Those making NFL picks immediately started picking up Dallas tickets and Green Bay has been lowered to -5 and the total also fell one point to 52. With this news, NFL football handicappers realize Rodgers will most likely be in the shotgun most of the game and Cowboys pass rushers would have to be less concerned about him running out of the pocket. The running game would also be different because Rodgers could not perform handoffs on stretch plays to the C-gaps, allowing Dallas to focus on runs between the tackles. If there is a silver lining for the Packers, its Rodgers left calf which will not affect his plant leg when throwing. 

NFL Pick: Lean Dallas and Over

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NFL – Indianapolis vs. Denver 4:40 ET  CBS
Unless weather is an issue in the Rockies, the total rising from 53 to 54 seems on point. In the last 11 meetings between these teams, nine have gone past the sportsbooks total. The matchup of Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck has produced a pair of OVER’s and while Denver has shifted gears to be more of a running team of late, hard to imagine Manning at some juncture doesn’t starts zinging the pigskin around if the Indianapolis can thwart the Broncos rushing attack. This is one person’s opinion, but I think Manning was injured in some manner which is why Denver started running the ball more along with receiver injuries, but with two weeks rest I suspect he will be ready to go. Denver is 21-8 OVER playing against a team with a winning record and goes over the number again. Update – A couple offshore books have retreated to 53.5, but those are few and far between. Nearly two-thirds are supporting the OVER.

NFL Pick: Lean Over

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College Football Monday Ohio State vs. Oregon 8:30 ET  ESPN  
Evidently, the only purpose the defense will serve in the national championship game is to get in the way to slow the opponent down and not keep them out of the end zone with the total lifting from 73.5 to 75. It is hard to argue with this logic when you realize Ohio State averages 42.6 points in away games and Oregon quacks in at 49.6. The Buckeyes offensive stature has caught the oddsmakers off guard all year with their 12-2 OVER mark, while they have had a much better feel for the Ducks at 7-7 against the total. While 75 points for a championship games seems outrageous, when you consider the spread at 7, Oregon winning 41-34 to match up the numbers sounds pretty accurate. Update – A few offshore wagering outlets more noted for catering to sharper bettors are back to 74.5 for the total, with everyone else at 75. The bigger news is Oregon slipped a digit to -6  on the college football odds and this is worth watching.  Just over 50 percent are backing the OVER and 54 percent are on the Ducks. 

NFL Pick: Leans on Over and Ohio State

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Check out our Props Comparison for these games!

Sports Book Review Tasty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Seattle is 8-0 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in consecutive games the last three seasons. 

NFL Totals Trend
New England is 14-3 OVER versus teams averaging 350 or more yards a game the last three seasons. 

NFL First Half Trend
Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS in road games playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 2012. 

NFL Money Line Trend
Carolina is 3-21 against teams who commit one or less turnovers a game on the season.