October 26th NFL Picks of the Day

Darin Zank

Sunday, October 26, 2014 11:32 AM GMT

After searching through our stacks of NFL handicapping stats and doing a little surmising here's what we've come up with for free NFL picks against those NFL odds for Sunday of Week 8.

Seattle -5/45 vs. Carolina (Seahawks vs. Panthers)
The 3-3 Seahawks, losers of two straight games, look to bounce back as they visit the 3-3-1 Panthers.

Seattle got upset last week at St. Louis 28-26, as the Rams used a misdirected punt return for a score and a fake punt for a first down late in the game to pull off the surprise. The Seahawks trailed 21-3 in the second quarter of that game, pulled to within two points twice in the fourth but couldn't quite complete the comeback. In the end Seattle outgained St. Louis 463-275.

Carolina, meanwhile, fell behind Green Bay last week 21-0 in the first quarter, on its way to a 38-17 defeat at Lambeau Field. The Panthers couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Pack early in that game, and couldn't make a first down. It was a total team effort.

Seattle ranks second in the league in rushing (153 yards per game) and sixth against the run (85 YPG); Carolina ranks 27th in rushing (90 YPG) and 25th vs. the run (138 YPG). And that's good enough for us, considering teams that have outrushed their opponents this NFL season are 73-31 ATS. The Seahawks should be able to shake off those last two losses and climb back above .500 with a win/cover Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: Seahawks at -4.5 at Heritage

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Miami -6/42 vs. Jacksonville (Dolphins vs. Jaguars)
The 3-3 Dolphins, coming off a nice win at Chicago last week, will try to climb above .500 themselves when they visit the 1-6 Jaguars.

Miami beat the Bears 27-14, outgaining them 393-224. The week before the Dolphins nearly beat the Packers, losing on an Aaron Rodgers (that guy again?) touchdown pass on the last play of the game. Miami ranks 11th in total offense, fourth in rushing, fourth in total defense and 10th vs. the run.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, just picked up its first victory of the season, a 24-6 decision over Cleveland. The Jags have actually outgained and outrushed their last two opponents, going 2-0 ATS in the process. But for the season Jacksonville still ranks just 31st in total offense and 28th in total defense.

Before making your NFL pick here, keep in mind that both teams are coming off unexpected victories last week, but the Jags' win was the more surprising. And we just don't think they can come up with another surprise so soon again. The Dolphins will be ready for RB Denard Robinson, after his breakout performance of last week, and young QB Blake Bortles is still learning, throwing three picks against the Browns. Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, is coming off one of his best days as a pro last week against Chicago.

Free NFL Pick: Miami at -6 at Pinnacle

 

New Orleans -1.5/55.5 over Green Bay (Packers vs. Saints)
A desperate Saints team, after blowing a game last week at Detroit, hopes to avoid a 2-5 start when it hosts the 5-2 Packers Sunday night.

New Orleans led the Lions last week 23-10 with four minutes to go, but gave up two touchdowns, thanks in part to a bad Drew Brees interception, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Saints have now lost three games this season by a total of six points.

But at 2-4 New Orleans is only a game out of first place in the mediocre NFC South.

Green Bay, on the other hand, is tied for the lead in the NFC North after rolling over Carolina last week 38-17.

The Saints rank second in total offense and have outrushed opponents by an average of 20 yards per game this season. The Packers rank just 25th in total offense, 19th in total defense and have been outrushed by an average of 49 yards per game. As mentioned above, that last figure is not usually conducive to covering spreads in the NFL.

New Orleans is a little banged up, but this one means a lot. If the Saints are going to recover from their poor start to make the playoffs they've got to have this one. And they're a much better team playing on the fast turf and in the noise at the Dome than elsewhere.

Free NFL Pick: New Orleans at -1 at Bovada

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Upset Pick
Chicago is terrible at home, but 3-1 both SU and ATS this season on the road. The Bears are getting six points at New England Sunday, and if they can avoid the turnovers they might win this one outright.

 

One More Thing
The bottom seven teams in run defense are a combined 27-18 on the totals this season. That list of teams to apply to this weeks total betting picks includes Cleveland, Cincinnati, Oakland and St. Louis. So we'll go with the Rams/Chiefs OVER 44; the Bengals-Ravens OVER 44.5; and the Browns-Raiders OVER 43.