Not Wise to Back Struggling Ravens QB Flacco vs. Dolphins

joe flacco ravens

David Schwab

Wednesday, October 25, 2017 1:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017 1:00 PM UTC

The Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens get things started in Week 8 Thursday at M&T Bank Stadium in an 8:25 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS. The Dolphins are riding a three-game winning streak into this AFC clash, while the Ravens are looking to end a two-game skid.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +3.5Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

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Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Miami is 4-2 straight-up on the year and it continues to keep pace in the highly contested AFC East Division race with a modest three-game winning streak while going 2-0-1 against the spread. Last week’s 31-28 victory at home against the New York Jets ended as a PUSH as part of an overall record of 3-2-1 ATS. The total went OVER 39 points after staying UNDER in the Dolphins’ first five games.

Jay Cutler left against the Jets with cracked ribs and Matt Moore is set to take his place Thursday. Moore completed 13 of 21 attempts for 188 yards and two scores in relief last week to help secure the win. The Dolphins’ offense overall is ranked last in the league in total yards gained and it is 31st in scoring with an average of 15.3 points per game, so this unit really has nowhere to go but up.

Baltimore is two games off the pace set by Pittsburgh in the AFC North at 3-4 (SU and ATS) after losing back-to-back games to Chicago at home and Minnesota on the road the last two weeks. The total went OVER the closing line in both of those games, and it has gone OVER in four of the Ravens’ last five contests. They are 1-2 this season ATS when closing as favorites.

This is another offense that has had its issues moving the ball down the field with an average of 277.6 total yards per game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has Baltimore’s passing offense ranked dead last in the league with an average of 157.4 yards per game. With Alex Collins and Javorius Allen handling the bulk of the carries in the ground game, the offense moves to 12th in the NFL in rushing. The Ravens’ defense has struggled to stop the run as part of a unit that is ranked 18th in yards allowed.


Game Betting Trends
  • The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a victory ATS and they have gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 8 of the season. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in their last nine games played on Thursday.
  • The Ravens have failed to cover in 16 their last 21 games following a SU loss and they have also failed to cover in their last four home games against a team with a SU winning road record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven Thursday games.
  • Head-to-head in this AFC tilt, the road team has a 5-2 edge ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings.


The Verdict

I am going to stick with the hotter hand in this matchup, especially with the added half point on an opening field-goal spread. Both teams have had their issues on offense, but I do not see much of a drop-off with Moore taking over for Cutler as opposed to the possibility that Flacco suddenly turns things around for Baltimore on a short week.

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