Nice Price Won't Last Long: Bet Patriots -7 vs. Lions

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 2:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 2:59 PM UTC

It doesn’t get much better than the New England Patriots these days. They’ve crushed the NFL odds in five of their last six games, and this Sunday, they get a crack at the unprofitable Detroit Lions.

Jason’s record after Week 10: 28-39 ATS, 11-16-1 Totals

Profit: minus-37.63 units

What if this is the year that the New England Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) finally win the Super Bowl again? They’ve won six straight games now at 5-1 ATS after whipping the Indianapolis Colts (–3 at home) 42-20 on Sunday Night Football. Yes, sometimes we get it right here at the ranch. Two times. After a very slow start to the season, the Patriots have absolutely crushed it, especially on offense. Their last seven games have all gone OVER. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.

Let’s hope the Detroit Lions (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) feel just as generous when they visit the Patriots Sunday afternoon. They had the No. 1-ranked defense in the league going into Week 11, but the offense came up short in a 14-6 loss to the Arizona Cardinals (+1 at home). The Week 12 NFL odds opened with the Patriots laying seven points and a total of 47. The UNDER is 8-2 for Detroit this year, so let’s look at that point spread, shall we?

Kicking the Dog
On the whole, the Lions have played some very good football this year. They ranked ninth in overall efficiency at Football Outsiders before losing to Arizona, but it was almost entirely due to their outstanding defense. Detroit was only No. 22 in offensive DVOA (No. 19 pass, No. 29 rush) through Week 10, and the special teams were last in the league. That’s why the UNDER is where it is.

It’s also why the Lions are only 5-5 ATS this year, including 1-3 ATS in their last four. Aside from their season-opening 35-14 victory over the New York Giants (+6.5 away), Detroit hasn’t scored more than 24 points in any single game this season. And the defense was responsible for two of Detroit’s 21 touchdowns, plus a safety. This was against the No. 20-ranked strength of schedule in the league, by the way.

According to Football Outsiders, the special teams have left another 21 points or so on the field, as well. This is almost entirely because of what has been by far the league’s worst field-goal kicking. Nate Freese: 3-for-7. Alex Henery: 1-for-5. Matt Prater: 9-for-12. At least the Lions were able to scoop up Prater after the Denver Broncos deemed him expendable. He was a great kicker for Denver, making 25 of his 26 attempts last year, but how much of that was due to assistance from the Mile High air? It’s like Dante Bichette hitting 40 home runs for the Colorado Rockies.

October Spawned a Monster
So we’ve been gushing over the Patriots the last few weeks – it’s almost as if that horrible September (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) never happened. But we have to acknowledge that New England bettors have been getting a bargain on their football odds ever since. The Patriots were underdogs in four of their last six games. Including twice in Foxborough. In 2013, the Pats were underdogs three times the whole season, all on the road.

The betting market’s going to catch up at some point. We don’t have any consensus numbers yet for Sunday’s matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX), but we would certainly expect both the sharps and the squares to be betting on the Patriots this week. Grabbing right now New England as your NFL pick would be advisable if that’s indeed the case. You’re already doing yourself a solid if you can get the Pats at –7 instead of –7.5. Don’t expect prices like these to last.


The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: NE
Defense/Special Teams: DET
Coaching: NE
Market Bias: DET
Betting Line Value: NE

Verdict: 1-star pick on NE

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Patriots –7 at Ladbrokes

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