NFLX Week 1 Betting - Sharp Sunday Parlay Offers Top Action

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Jordan Sharp

Sunday, August 14, 2016 8:04 PM GMT

Week 1 of the preseason is set to come to a close, but there is one more game on the slate. The Texans are in San Francisco to play the 49ers and the home team is a -3 ½ favorite with a total of 37 ½. Let's use some preseason trends and parlay our way into this Sunday night game.  

Spread
Favorites have been getting torched so far to start the preseason, which should at the very least have you worried about betting the Texans in this one. Favorites are 5-10 ATS so far to start the preseason and it’s been even worse over the last few days, as favorites have lost in eight of the last nine preseason games.

It isn’t necessarily uncommon for Week 1 preseason spreads to be unpredictable and even worse, unreliable. However, for this game, the underdog would have appeal even if favorites had been cashing over the last few days. While the 49ers will play Colin Kaepernick some to start the game, he likely won’t be in the game too long.

The Texans on the other hand, have a new quarterback to install and while I doubt Brock Osweiler will play too much either, it’s interesting to note that even if he doesn’t play very long, Tom Savage is likely the guy they’ll bring in afterward. He has been with the Texans for three years now as a backup quarterback and his knowledge of the playbook is probably better than Osweiler even at this point. If he is playing well I expect the Texans to mount a nice run when the stars come out of the game, which will lead to them covering this spread, even as underdogs.

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Total
The total for this one is another beast. We talked a lot about Week 1 trends earlier in the week. The underdogs have completely turned the trend of favorites cashing over the last few years in Week 1 of the preseason, but the total has been all about the under. So far since 2014 if you include this season, the under is a combined 28-19-2 in Week 1 of the preseason.

Even though this year has seen the under at a modest 6-7-2, when you looks at these two teams you don’t necessarily think offense. You think of running the football and playing good defense and while the Niners’ defense may not be great, if Osweiler struggles in his time in the game it won’t matter much.

With that being said, it looks like the under is the best play for this one. These two teams played one another in Week 1 of the preseason last year and the final score was 23-10. A final similar to that with the Texans winning the game is not out of the question. They won last year at this time, but the game was in Houston. However, in Week 1 since Bill O’Brien took over the Texans two years ago, the under has cashed in both of his Week 1 preseason games, with 2014 getting beat 32-0. Take the under as the NFL pick and let’s get the trend to continue for 2016.

Free NFL Picks: Texans +3 ½ and UNDER 37 ½

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