NFL Wildcard Weekend Prop Betting: NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Friday, January 4, 2013 8:57 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 4, 2013 8:57 PM UTC

The NFL wildcard weekend is almost upon us, and sports books all over the world or starting to release their prop bets for the weekend. There is a wealth of options at our disposal, so it's time to look at some of the more interesting prop bets from Bovada, and see if any of them hold the value for our NFL picks.

Individual Player Props

The NFL odds boards are offering up lines on which of the eight quarterbacks will throw for the most yards on wild-card weekend. Aaron Rodgers, who sits at 5/2, is the favorite to lead all quarterbacks in passing yards a wild-card weekend; however my eye is more on Andrew Luck, who sits at 7/2 on the NFL betting lines. It is unlikely to the Colts will be able to run that much against the Ravens defense, so Indianapolis will call on Luck to lead them to victory. Another dark horse would be his counterpart, Joe Flacco. Flacco is listed at 4/1, and he is the third highest favorite. Either way I think the winner of this prop will come from the Baltimore and Indianapolis game.

I don't know why this next one is even on the table, but there are odds as to who will be the leading rusher for wild-card weekend, and lo and behold Adrian Peterson is the favorite. Peterson is 7/4 to lead the weekend’s rushers, and I have no idea why he isn't even money or lower. Arian Foster is 3/1 and is the next in line after Peterson. Foster has a shot at the title for the week, and I expect him to run wild over the Packers once again. Even if the Vikings are down by multiple scores, I still expect Peterson to get the ball. 7/4 is simply a gift for 2013, I guess.

In my eyes, the player to post the most receiving yards for wild-card weekend boils down to two players, as Andre Johnson is 2/1, while AJ Green sits at 3/1. I don't see much of a reason to believe either one of these two will not lead the weekend and receiving. Johnson will be targeted heavily, while Green is his team's most important player. Both will have to be huge if either of their teams want to win this week, and I think an even bet on both will yield the results. That's the name of the game isn't it?

Team Prop Options 

We’ll move on to some team props now, which also have some interesting odds attached to them. For instance the over/under for wild-card teams winning this weekend is 1 1/2. You can get +110 for a yes, but I seriously doubt more than one wild card team will win. The Vikings and Bengals have virtually no chance, so that would mean that the Redskins would have to upset the Seahawks, as well as the Colts beating the Ravens. It's simply not probable, so juicing at -140 for the under might be the play. 

You can also bet the exact number of wild card teams winning this weekend, and for my pick I would only choose one. I think the Colts are going to upset the Ravens, but there isn't much money in it at +125. The value would be in no wild-card teams winning and all of the higher seeded teams advancing. At +450, zero wild-card teams winning would net a nice profit on that prop bet. 

Finally, you can get +300 if you think that a wild-card team is going to play in the Super Bowl. The only way I can see the happening is if the Seahawks make another run to the Super Bowl. They would of course have to be the Redskins this weekend, followed by the Falcons in Atlanta, then of course beating what will most likely be either Green Bay or San Francisco in the NFC championship. The road is not easy, but it is easier and more likely than any of the other wild-card teams making it to the Super Bowl. Last season the Giants won the Super Bowl the wild-card team, so it's not all that unlikely. I would be willing to put a small play on the Seahawks making it to the Super Bowl.

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