Super Wild Card Weekend is here, and I pick out my favorite value TD scorers for the weekend. For the start of the playoffs, I have a shortie, mid-odds, and a longshot over both days.
Indianapolis vs. Buffalo Bills
Saturday, January 9th, 2021 – 1:05 PM ET at Bills Stadium
The first game of Super wild card weekend is the 7th seed vs. the 2nd seed in the AFC as the 11-5 Colts travel to the 13-3 Bills in what is predicted to be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend. The Bills are ranked as the 3rd best team left according to Super Bowl odds, and that’s fully deserved given how they finished the season. They won 7 of the final 8 games by at least 10 points, and they covered the spread in all of them. The offense is ticking, and the defense got better as the season went on.
It’s the other side of the ball I’m looking at for a bit of value, though, and it’s not the leading rookie rusher. Although -125 for him to find the endzone isn’t a bad price at all, I just don’t like tipping anything under even money on here after ending the season with 7 TDs in his final 4 games.
It’s the RB2 who I’m looking at to find the endzone. Hines has been mainly the second back this season but gets involved a lot more in the passing game, and even with Taylor leading the team in carries he had 6 receptions last week against the Jags. I expect the Colts to be trailing in this one, which should mean they have to pass the ball. Hence, more and more of Hines on the field.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Football Team
Saturday, January 10th, 2021 - 8:15 PM ET at Fedex Field
The Bucs enter the playoffs with the draw that every team wanted to get. They have a chance to play the winner of the NFC East, which ended up being Washington, who backed their way in after the Eagles gave up their game against them in the season closer last week.
The Bucs finished the season on a great run, admittedly against poor defenses, but they put up at least 24 points in each of the final 7 games they played, including a couple of 40-burgers in the last two games against the Lions and Falcons. They face a far better defense here, but Brady has been playing well and spreading the ball around his receivers to find the open man.
Increasingly at the end of the year, that open man was Antonio Brown, who was at one time the best in the league. He looks like he might be getting closer to that form, and with Mike Evans expected to either miss or be limited in this game, I think his targets will increase. I like him to find the endzone in this one.
It's likely to be a fairly low-scoring game. Washington's games went Under the sportsbooks' totals in all of their last 5 games, but the Bucs usually score through the air, and I think Brady will throw at least 3 in this one.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, January 10th, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
A rematch of the AFC divisional game that the Titans won last year in Baltimore is expected to be the highest-scoring game of the whole weekend. It should be a high-scoring affair with a lot of rushing as that’s where both teams excel.
Obviously everyone knows and expects the rushing games to be highly utilized, and as such, the prices on TD scorers from that aspect are quite short. Henry at -200, Dobbins and Jackson both under even money for the Ravens. My boy Gus Edwards is usually above evens, and +175 on him are good NFL odds, considering the number of points expected in this game.
But I’m looking to the passing game. With the Ravens averaging under 200 yards per game through the air, it’s the Titans with Ryan Tannehill throwing 33 TDs this year that I’m looking at. AJ Brown is the obvious selection, even Corey Davis, but after I’m shooting for the moon with Anthony Firkser, who scored twice in the post-season last year, including against the Ravens.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.