NFL Week 9 Pick: Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Thursday, September 7, 2017 9:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 7, 2017 9:44 PM UTC

The Raiders and Dolphins were the AFC’s two wild-card teams in 2016. It’s not looking good for either to return to the playoffs. Survivor Pick: Oakland.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+3, 43.5)

Do I dare take the Raiders here? In the past 14 years, they have been an Eastern Time Zone favorite just five timed and they have lost and failed to cover all five. That includes earlier this year as a field-goal favorite in Washington, also a Sunday night game, and were routed 27-10. Well, that’s fine but Miami isn’t Washington. This is desperation time for Oakland at 3-5 and off a very flat 34-14 loss last week in Buffalo – after a season-saving win the previous week against Kansas City. The Raiders didn’t have Marshawn Lynch vs. the Bills, but he’ll return here. Lynch won’t make a 20-point difference, but he can move the chains despite a career-low 3.7 yards per carry average. I’m embarrassed to say that I picked Miami as a short favorite last Thursday in Baltimore and the Fins completely laid an egg in a 40-0 loss. Jay Cutler was out with cracked ribs and backup QB Matt Moore was simply awful, throwing two picks that were returned for a touchdown. Cutler will play Sunday – not that he’s much of an upgrade. The last time these teams played was Week 4 in the 2014 season. Miami won handily in London and Oakland fired Coach Dennis Allen the next day.

  • Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Dolphins are 6-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Free NFL Pick: Raiders -3 (buy down to 2.5)Best Line Offered: GT Bets

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I am very curious how the Miami players will react this week to the team trading 2016 Pro Bowl running back Jay Ajayi to the Eagles for just a fourth-round pick. Ajayi was probably the biggest reason the Fins made the playoffs last year was he was one of the NFL’s top five running backs and had three 200-yard games, including back-to-back once. Yeah, Ajayi had struggled this year and his 138 attempts were the most of any player in the NFL without a rushing TD. The Dolphins are the first team since the 2013 Rams without a rushing touchdown in their first seven games, and the team's streak of eight games without a rushing touchdown is a franchise record. Miami is spinning this that Ajayi’s knees are about shot. Maybe, but when you have the NFL’s worst offense, do you turn your backfield over to Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake? The Raiders haven’t been great on defense overall but their red-zone defense ranks fifth in the NFL, holding opponents to only a 40.0% touchdown success rate, trailing only the Bengals, Chargers, Seahawks and Ravens.

  • Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 games overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Raiders last 8 road games.
Free NFL Pick: Under 43.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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